$BTC Evening View:
Looking at the chart: The long-awaited new high for Bitcoin was reached this morning, but it did not continue to maintain near the new high; instead, the next candlestick directly fell back into the price channel.
Moreover, the bullish acceleration line below was also broken. The pattern drawn in the chart indicates a bearish butterfly pattern. The D point of the butterfly pattern at 125023, if reached again, whether in spot or contract, you should take profit on half because the D point of the butterfly pattern is a potential reversal area. A pullback is certain to happen here.
Do not just look at 130,000-150,000; remember that interest rates have not been lowered yet, and the Federal Reserve has not provided liquidity. Currently, it is only speculating on the expectation of rate cuts in September, which is still uncertain.
If Powell does not lower rates, then Trump has no choice, and the current bullish expectation will directly turn into bearish.
After breaking down from 122372, Bitcoin attempted to recover above 122372, but it has formed three consecutive doji candles without success, and the position of 122372 has successfully turned from support to resistance.
If Bitcoin cannot recover and oscillate above 122372, the strongest support below is 120413. If it breaks below 120413, it will drop just as it came up.
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Bitcoin broke through 121952 with volume, chasing the long side to catch the rebound. 121536 broke down with volume, and the pullback could not recover, leading to a short position; be sure to set stop losses.
Bitcoin's hourly level has broken and stabilized above 122367, looking upward to 123288-124590. If it cannot hold above 122367, it won't be effective.
At the 4-hour level, breaking below 121354 looks downward to 120210-118940; if it breaks below 120210, this surge will be deemed meaningless.
Continuing to look at the chart: In the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin, the position circled in white is what kind of pattern? Does anyone recognize it?
If you don't recognize this pattern, how can you trade? This is a Evening Star pattern + Bearish Engulfing pattern, and this is the Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing pattern at the 4-hour level, with the candlestick pointed out by the yellow arrow being a gravestone doji. Without elaborating on others, just note that the appearance of the Evening Star indicates that the market is likely to reverse, potentially shifting from rising to falling; even if it doesn't fall significantly, a pullback will still occur, and the corresponding volume for the bearish candlestick is quite sufficient.
Students chasing highs should be cautious. The only thing that can break the downtrend of the Evening Star is a bullish candlestick that engulfs the Evening Star. Currently, it seems difficult; pay attention to changes in volume. Meeting adjourned.