ETH market update: Low volume surge hides pullback risk.
Key point:
1. 3636 (POC) is the cost zone for both bulls and bears, can buy on dips.
2. 3600-3750 is a strong support zone, sharp declines are likely to rebound.
3. Sparse trading above 4700, breakouts may accelerate, but current price is near the top of the range, initial signs of overbought.
4. Diverging momentum: Buyers dominate at 4536-4555, clear selling pressure near 4775 (sell orders 2.4 times buy orders).
Indicator signals:
• Price deviates from MA200 (4129) by 14%, short-term overheating.
• 1-hour Bollinger upper band at 4771, beware of false breakouts pulling back to 4660 middle band.
• Contract holdings slightly decreased, funding rate stable, no frenzy among bulls for now.
Operating strategy:
• Aggressive: Light long position at 4683-4692, stop loss at 4650, target 4775/4830.
• Steady: Wait for 4619-4637 to stabilize with reduced volume before re-entering, stop loss at 4590.
• Follow the trend: If it breaks out and stabilizes at 4775, look for 4830-4850.
• Risk line: Break below 4619 turns bearish, looking down to 4555.
LP recommendation:
4600-4750 grid orders, capturing range fluctuations + fees.
Summary: Upward momentum weakens, beware of pullbacks after highs, strong consolidation as long as key support holds.