Market participants.
Until 2017, individuals entered crypto. Not everyone, but the most astute.
Since 2017, there has been a massive influx of individuals into crypto. Bitcoin first exceeded $1,000, rose to $20K, and has not fallen below $3,600-4,000 since 2018.
In 2020, the smartest corporate finances (Saylor, Elon Musk - these were still isolated cases) entered crypto.
Bitcoin rose to nearly $70K, then, in a year of significant scams, fell below $20K. In 2023-2024, it rose to $100K.
In 2024-2025, corporate finance massively entered crypto. Bitcoin did not fall below $76K anymore but repeatedly hit new highs.
In 2025-2026, states (buying Bitcoin for central bank reserves) and the largest corporations (Google, Amazon, and others that are officially not in the loop) will enter the stage.
It is quite likely that this process (the purchase of Bitcoin in the interests of states) is already underway, as it is appropriate to do such things first and then announce them.
At the same time, for some countries, the path of generating fiat and buying Bitcoin with it may seem very attractive. After all, what could be more interesting than acquiring a scarce and constantly growing asset for fiat that can be issued in any quantity?
It is clear that such schemes will not become public knowledge immediately.
But I have no doubt that this will happen.
That is, structures with unlimited financial resources are emerging among market participants. For them, the price of the asset is of little importance. What matters is the quantity of the asset they can acquire.
2. Macroeconomics
I once talked about the features of this cycle and why Bitcoin is rising while altcoins are not.
The problem was the high Fed rate. But now this period is coming to an end; already in 2025, the rate will be reduced 2 or even 3 times. It will continue to decrease throughout 2026. If something extreme happens, it will be lowered faster.
But that's not all. A recent directive from Trump allowing pension funds to invest in crypto will bring new money to the market (pension funds represent $9 trillion in capital. Given that crypto is significantly outpacing the growth of other assets, a considerable portion of these funds may enter this market. Currently, the total market capitalization of the crypto market is over $4 trillion).
If Bitcoin reached current levels with a record high rate, what will happen when the rate is low?
3. Geopolitics
Here I see two important long-term trends.
Trump tightened tariffs. For some countries (whoever he could), he imposed not the most advantageous agreements, resulting in significant additional costs for these countries.
It is very likely (I would even say - obvious) that these countries will find a way out by devaluing their currency. So that their goods are cheaper in cost and more competitive in the global market.
How will they devalue it?
Through additional issuance, of course.
And this is an increase in global liquidity and growth in investment, especially deflationary assets. The main beneficiaries of this process are crypto and gold.
Since 2022, processes of fragmentation and de-globalization have been actively developing in the world. I talked about this 3 years ago.
This creates demand for assets that are outside the banking system and traditional finance. In this regard, crypto has no competitors at all.
Let's summarize.
Fewer and fewer people are left who have only just realized how unique and promising an asset this is.
A race for the remaining Bitcoin is beginning. The main participants in this race will be structures with unlimited financial resources. They don't care how much Bitcoin costs; what matters is acquiring as much of it as possible.
A decrease in the Fed's rate and money generation is always a strong stimulus for the growth of crypto. Combined with what was said above, the growth could be unpredictably fast and strong.
All the reasons that brought Bitcoin to its current levels remain in force.
The question is - can Bitcoin rise 8 times under such conditions to reach a price of $1 million for 1 BTC?
I would frame the question differently - can it not rise 8 times under such conditions?
And I will answer this question - in such a situation, a medium-term growth of Bitcoin by 8-10 times is inevitable.
In what timeframe?
From the bottom in November 2022 (in less than 3 years), Bitcoin has risen about 8 times.
Moreover, this was done during a period of tightening monetary policy and high Fed rates, which has never happened in history before.
Of course, there was a low base effect. But on the other hand, until 2024 and the appearance of ETFs, such players as we have now were not in the markets either.
Let's see how 2025 ends. Will everything go according to the plan outlined at the beginning of the year, or will Bitcoin go higher?
Here, the situation depends on what is happening with monetary policy and the pace of money generation, as well as the actions of major players.
My forecast for 2025, which I gave at the beginning of the year, is quite modest, but let's take it as a basis.
I think stronger growth will occur in 2026. It's too early to specify exact numbers, as they depend on many factors.
How much will the rate be lowered in 2026? Will the prospects for further reductions persist in 2027?
How strong will money generation be? Will there be a distribution of helicopter money to individuals?
How will the situation with Bitcoin in central bank reserves develop? Which countries and how intensively will use their fiat to buy Bitcoin?
Will something extreme happen in the stock market during 2026?
What will happen in geopolitics?
Any of these factors will drastically affect the 2026 forecast, so there is no point in making one yet.
How events might unfold in 2026-2028 - I will write about this separately; it is a large topic.
I will now make another forecast, the likelihood of which I consider to be very high.
By 2030, Bitcoin will reach a price of $1 million.
It might happen earlier. But unlikely later.
The combination of factors I discussed in this material makes this inevitable.
The figure of $1 million for Bitcoin may seem inevitable to many. But rewind 5 years back - summer 2020, Bitcoin was moving between $9K and $10K; how many believed it would reach $100K for 1 BTC then?
And the result is on the scoreboard.
5 years ago, anyone could buy 1 BTC. Now, everyone can only buy 0.1 BTC, and a whole Bitcoin is no longer available to everyone.
In 5 years, for the same $10-12K, you will only be able to buy 0.01 BTC.
Think about this now so you don't suffer from missed opportunities later.
3 years ago, 39% of the channel's audience did not have crypto.
Imagine how those who missed such opportunities feel, and learn from others' mistakes.
"TAKEN FROM THE MAIN CRYPTO CHANNEL"
