Will the cryptocurrency unlock of #牛市季来临 fall or not? Four-step Judgment Method

1. Unlock Scale (Supply and Demand Shock)

Unlock Ratio > Circulating Supply 10% → High Risk

Unlock Ratio 3–10% → Medium Risk

Unlock Ratio < 3% → Low Risk

2. Unlock Targets (Selling Motivation)

Team/Early Investors → High Cashing Out Willingness

Airdrop/Staking Rewards → Medium Cashing Out Willingness

Community Incentives/Strategic Partners → Uncertain, depending on relationship stability

3. Market Environment (Buying Power)

Bull Market/High Enthusiasm → Selling Pressure can be Quickly Digested

Bear Market/Poor Liquidity → Easy to Form Continuous Declines

4. Event Overlap (Emotional Expectations)

Favorable News (New Listings, Partnerships, Token Burn, etc.) → Offsets Some Selling Pressure

Negative News (Team Changes, Fund Withdrawal) → Intensifies Decline

💡 Quick Conclusion Formula:

Unlock Risk = Unlock Ratio × Selling Motivation Strength ÷ Market Buying Power

So will $AVAX $SEI $XCN $STRK fall?