This wave of ETH market is like a balloon on the edge of a cliff - it needs wind to float up, but just one needle to fall down!
At 8:30 PM tonight, the US unemployment data is that 'fateful needle'! The quality of the data will directly determine whether the balloon flies to 4770 high or crashes through the 4650 floor. With twenty years of market experience, Long Ge will help you analyze tonight's life-and-death situation!

Technical Analysis:

ETH is currently stuck around 4700 dollars, just like an auntie stuck in the rhythm of a square dance - unable to go up or down!

Resistance level above: 4710 is the first hurdle, once surpassed, look towards 4736, 4750; if it can actually rush to 4770-4772, then it’s considered to have 'opened the window', otherwise it's just a bluff.

Support level below: 4650 is the 'lifeline', if it is lost, panic selling will crash down to 4600 or even lower like dominoes.

Indicator Signals:

MACD: The red bars are getting shorter, indicating that the bullish momentum is like a phone battery at 10% - it could shut down at any moment.

RSI: The value is stuck around 50, with bulls and bears in a tug-of-war, the red cloth in the middle of the rope not moving at all.

Trading Volume: Currently only 125k in one hour, 10% less than usual, indicating that everyone is holding back to wait for the data to 'unleash the moves'.

Long Ge's View: ETH is like a 'spring', the harder it's pressed, the stronger it rebounds; but if it breaks down, it lies flat. The key is how tonight's data will 'pierce' this 'needle'!

News:

The data will be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time, which is that 'needle'; whether it hurts or not will directly determine whether the balloon flies or falls!

Data better than expected:
The dollar will rise like it's on steroids, while risk assets like ETH are likely to fall - bearish for ETH.

Data worse than expected:
The dollar will deflate like a punctured balloon, and ETH may actually rise - bullish for ETH.

Long Ge's View: Good data → ETH falls; bad data → ETH rises. But market reaction is more important than the data itself! For example, if the data is good but ETH doesn’t fall, it indicates there is 'mysterious power' supporting the price; if the data is bad but ETH rises and then falls back, it shows heavy selling pressure above like a mountain.

Future market trend

Scenario 1: Losing 4650

The price has plummeted through 4650 like sliding down a slide, especially with volume pushing down.

The market may accelerate down to 4600, 4580, or even earlier lows. At this point, don’t try to catch the 'falling knife', bullish traders should quickly escape, or lightly short in the direction of the trend.

Scenario 2: Holding 4650

If the data is favorable for ETH, the price may stabilize around 4650, and if the trading volume decreases, there might be major buys supporting the price.

The market may rebound and regain the critical level of 4710, targeting 4736, 4750, and ultimately challenging 4770-4788. This is a good opportunity to buy low and bet on a rebound with a higher safety factor.

Tonight, whether ETH is 'taking off' or 'crashing', all depends on whether the 4650 'trampoline' can bounce back! Brothers, prepare your ammunition, and be ready to act at 8:30 PM - whether it's meat or noodles, the market will decide!


Don't wait until the contract blows up to remember me! Follow Long Ge, and I'll help you escape the top 3 seconds in advance next time!