ETH violently breaks through 4300! Three major signals behind the surge exposed, how high can it go tonight?
News Bombshell
Last night, the US SEC suddenly relaxed its stance on the custody plan for ETH spot ETFs, prompting Wall Street institutions to adjust their positions overnight. Coupled with Vitalik's hint on X that "the Ethereum L2 ecosystem is about to undergo a major upgrade," this double benefit directly propelled ETH from 4200 to above 4300.
Remember! August is traditionally a month for institutional adjustments, and any regulatory windfall will amplify volatility.
Technical Breakthrough
Key Breakthrough: The 1-hour chart violently pierced through the 4262 resistance level, marking a true breakout after the third test in two weeks.
Moving Average Army: The yellow, green, and purple lines are diverging in a "fountain-like" manner, and even the 60-day moving average is starting to rise, which is a sign of a rapid return of the bull market.
Volume Coordination: Trading volume during the surge is three times the usual, but around 4300, there is a "divergence between volume and price," indicating a need to be cautious of short-term profit-taking.
Main Operator's Footprints
• Large transactions are concentrated in the 4220-4248 range, which is a typical method for institutions to accumulate positions.
• However, the委比 (Order Ratio) data of -0.69% reveals the secret: the main operators have placed numerous sell orders above 4300, employing the old trick of "false breakout, real selling."
Today's Operation Strategy
Aggressive: If it retraces to 4262 without breaking it, consider a light long position.
Conservative: Wait for it to stabilize above 4300 and for volume to continue to increase before following up.
Dangerous Signal: If it falls back below 4248 within 2 hours, it is likely a "news market" trap.
Tip: Pay attention to the US PPI data at 20:30 tonight; large funds are now focused on it.
Personal Opinion:
This wave of market activity resembles the "news bull" of January 2024 — it comes quickly and goes quickly. The real bull market will wait for the official approval of the ETH spot ETF; for now, it's just a rehearsal.
Remember the iron rule of the crypto market: when everyone is celebrating, you need to fasten your seatbelt; I recommend not exceeding 5% in positioning; it’s better to miss out than to become a bag holder.
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