Ethereum has once again fallen into a 'box dilemma' today, with prices oscillating between $4640 and $4800. As of 9 AM Beijing time, ETH is at $4713, down 0.75% in the last 24 hours, but the weekly chart still shows a strong increase of 19.68%. The technical aspect presents three key signals:
First, survival in the squeeze of moving averages
Current price is trapped between MA20 and MA60, this 'moving average squeeze' pattern often indicates an imminent trend reversal. Notably, the 4-hour MACD has just formed a golden cross, with the histogram turning from negative to positive, indicating a short-term accumulation of bullish power. However, the RSI indicator is already overbought, and historical data shows that when RSI breaks 70, ETH typically experiences a 5%-8% correction.
Second, the competition at key levels is heating up
Order book data shows there are dense sell orders of 5.68 ETH around $4730, while there is a support wall of 200 ETH at $4700. This 'pressure from sell orders above and support orders below' pattern suggests that the main force may be washing out positions around $4700. Looking back at history, when ETH broke above $2000 in March 2025, a similar 'pressure test - breakout - retracement' classic trend also occurred.
Third, institutional movements are hiding secrets
Recent data shows that spot ETH ETFs have attracted over $1 billion in a single day, with institutions like BlackRock and Grayscale continuing to increase their holdings. More notably, companies like SharpLink Gaming have cumulatively purchased 438,000 ETH, and this 'corporate buying' often signals long-term bullish conditions. However, caution is needed in the short term; when the proportion of institutional holdings exceeds 30% of the circulating supply, the market may experience severe volatility due to tightening liquidity.
Qingyao reminds: need to keep a close eye on three major signals
Breakthrough of $4785: If it can stabilize effectively, consider taking a small long position with a target above $4800, and set a stop loss at $4760;
Break below $4680: Beware of a retreat of the bulls, with the first support level at $4640 and the second support level at $4560;
The safest strategy: Wait for a clear breakout of the range before taking action, currently pay attention to the 'support order absorption' signal near $4700;
Special reminder: The U.S. retail sales data for July will be released at 21:30 tonight. If the data falls short of expectations, it may trigger risk-averse sentiment in the crypto market. It is recommended to set a 5% floating stop loss and pay attention to Bitcoin's movements - when BTC breaks $125,000, ETH often experiences a rebound.
