Federal Reserve official Goolsbee emphasized during his speech at the Chicago Economic Club today that inflation data must show a positive trend for several consecutive months to provide sufficient basis for a rate cut decision. The Chicago Fed chairman explained to the attending entrepreneurs in plain language: "We are now like watching a long marathon; we cannot conclude the outcome just because we see the runners doing well for one or two kilometers. We must observe sustained positive performance to have real confidence in the decline of inflation."

Goolsbee specifically mentioned that the slowdown of the core PCE price index over the past three months is a "encouraging start," but it is far from the level where we can relax our vigilance. He counted on his fingers: "Food prices are still volatile, rent increases have slowed but remain high, and inflation in the service sector is stubborn like taffy. These all need time to digest." During the Q&A session, a small manufacturer complained that high interest rates make him hesitant to expand his factory, and Goolsbee nodded in understanding but still insisted that "it is too early to shift direction now."

This data-driven official specially displayed a line chart, with the recent six months of inflation curve circled in red. "You see, this line is like the mountain road in my hometown; although it's generally declining, each curve could hide surprises." He reminded the attending reporters not to overinterpret single-month data, "Last summer, we also thought victory was in sight, but we got slapped in the face in the autumn and winter."

Throughout the speech, Goolsbee mentioned the word "patience" at least five times. When asked how long we need to observe, he smiled and shook his head: "This is not a toaster timer that dings when the time is up. We need to see inflation truly drop to around the 2% target, not just rely on short-term factors to gloss over the data." An audience member muttered softly, "Looks like there’s no hope this year," which just confirms the market's general expectation of the Fed's cautious stance.