Ukraine's allies are considering a conditional easing of sanctions on Russia. Analysts point out that only with the cooperation of the European Union can Trump's bait for easing sanctions attract Putin; otherwise, he may need stronger threats.
According to Sky News, sources close to the President of the European Commission said that if a comprehensive ceasefire agreement can be reached, Ukraine's allies are assessing the gradual easing of sanctions on Russia.
Sources added that sanctions would be reimposed in the event of a violation of the agreement. They hope to immediately reach a 15-day ceasefire agreement (during which sanctions will still be effective), after which a more organized pause in the conflict in Ukraine can be achieved.
Additionally, sources from the Italian government stated that they will insist that President Trump involve Europe in his talks with Russian President Putin regarding Ukraine during a video conference later today.
An Italian diplomat explained, 'He has been asking European countries to increase military spending, so we must be involved in these decisions.' Sources added that Italy will emphasize the necessity of clear military, economic, and political guarantees for Ukraine during the call.
This spring, Western media reported that the U.S. government was considering easing sanctions on Russia, particularly plans to lift restrictions on the 'Nord Stream 2' gas pipeline. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that these are unfounded rumors in response to such claims.
Reuters columnist Neil Unmack pointed out on Wednesday that easing sanctions on Russia may be a difficult bait to attract Putin. At Friday's Alaska summit, Trump may propose lifting restrictions on Russian banks and companies to facilitate a Ukraine-related agreement. However, without cooperation from Europe, Putin is unlikely to gain substantial benefits, and Trump may need stronger threats.
In theory, Putin could gain significant benefits from the easing of sanctions. In the United States
After Europe restricted Russia's access to Western markets and fossil fuel export revenues, the Russian economy fell into stagnation. The impact of sanctions in 2022 caused a sharp recession in the Russian economy, leading to a significant decline in energy sales to Europe, with some banks excluded from the international payment system. The net interest income of Russia's major domestic bank VTB has shrunk significantly.
Despite the bleak situation, Putin is still holding up. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Russia's economic growth rate is expected to be around 1% over the next three years. This growth rate is half of what it was in the three years before the pandemic, but far from a collapse. A key factor is that Putin has successfully shifted exports (especially oil and gas) to other countries. From 2021 to 2024, Europe's gas imports are expected to decrease by about two-thirds, but Russia's fossil fuel revenue remains resilient. In July, its average daily revenue was 585 million euros, down from early 2022.
In addition, Trump can only offer sporadic easing of sanctions. Europe's goal is to completely eliminate Russian imports by 2027, so it is unlikely to suddenly increase purchases of Russian oil and gas significantly. Furthermore, due to concerns about Kremlin expansionism from EU member states like Poland, the EU will be cautious about aiding Putin's military expansion. The EU is unlikely to agree to restore Russian banks' access to the SWIFT payment system (which would accelerate investment and imports) or unfreeze the assets of the Russian central bank that have been frozen.
Therefore, Unmack believes that Trump's best strategy for achieving peace is to threaten the implementation of stricter sanctions. This could include targeting the 'shadow tanker fleet' that Russia uses to evade price caps or imposing more tariffs or sanctions on countries purchasing Russian fossil fuels. However, Trump is not very interested in such measures. He previously threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian energy, but Oxford Economics believes this could drive oil prices up to $90 a barrel, contrary to Trump's desire to protect American consumers. In summary, Unmack expects that Putin may have little reason to make significant concessions at Friday's summit, especially if he believes the situation on the front lines is shifting in his favor. If Trump plays weakly, this conflict may drag on longer.