According to the latest data, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continue to approach historical highs, with strong market momentum. BTC is currently priced at $119,500-$120,600, about 2% away from the July high of $123,000; ETH's high is $4,700, only 3% lower than the 2021 high of $4,878, with a total cryptocurrency market capitalization reaching $4.2 trillion, a historical high.
Based on the inflow of institutional funds, favorable macro policies, and technical support, the likelihood of BTC and ETH breaking historical highs is high. Investors need to treat short strategies with caution to welcome a more stable investment future.
Market Dynamics: Drivers of BTC and ETH
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Price Dynamics: BTC in the range of $119,500-$120,600, close to the historical high of $123,000.
- Institutional Activity: On May 29, BlackRock's iShares fund increased its holdings by 4,476 BTC, worth approximately $481 million, with a total holding of 663,773 BTC (about $71.27 billion). Japan's Metaplanet increased its holdings by 518 BTC, with total holdings worth over $10 billion.
- Macro Factors: The U.S. CPI for July was 2.7%, below expectations, with a 94% probability of a rate cut in September.
- Network Metrics: Hash rate reaches 892 EH/s, a historical high.
Ethereum (ETH)
- Price Dynamics: ETH is priced at $4,700, with a weekly increase of 21%, approaching the 2021 high of $4,878.
- Institutional Activity: On August 11, BlackRock's iShares fund increased its holdings by 150,580 ETH, worth approximately $529 million, with a total holding of 1,370,710 ETH (about $3.64 billion). BitMine purchased $2 billion worth of ETH, holding 883,100 ETH; SharpLink purchased $1.62 billion worth of ETH, holding 438,200 ETH.
- On-chain Data: Daily transaction volume of 1.875 million, TVL exceeding $90 billion, staking volume of 35.8 million ETH, accounting for 30% of total supply.
- Policy Factors: The U.S. Project Crypto policy promotes on-chain finance, benefiting the ETH ecosystem.
The total market capitalization is between $4.06-$4.14 trillion, up 2.5%-3% from yesterday. Solana (+13%) and Litecoin (+11%) rose in tandem, with funds spreading to other crypto assets. Trump's tariff policy caused BTC to temporarily fall to $119,200, with a need to pay attention to short-term volatility risks.
Price Trend: Possibility of breaking historical highs
BTC: If it breaks $120,000 and stabilizes, the next target is $135,000, potentially reaching $370,000 in the long term (stair-step model). Institutions are purchasing 2,000-3,000 BTC daily, far exceeding the daily mining output of 450 BTC, with supply and demand imbalances supporting upward movement.
ETH: If it breaks $4,800, the short-term target is $5,000, and it can reach $13,000 in the long term (butterfly effect model). DeFi, NFTs, and Layer-2 solutions (like Arbitrum) are driving network activity; ETH priced in GBP and JPY has reached historical highs.
Risk Warning: Be cautious with shorting, especially with Ethereum and especially with high leverage in the short term. If you dare to short, be prepared for potential losses, and set stop-losses in a timely manner.
In the past 24 hours, the amount of ETH short liquidation reached $190 million, with high risks of leveraged short positions. If BTC drops below $115,000, it may test the $110,000 support; if ETH falls to $4,200-$4,400, it can be seen as a buying opportunity.
In summary, it is recommended to take small positions to buy on dips, or to remain on the sidelines. Many who owe in the bull market are not few, so remain cautious at all times.
Anran's Recommendations
BTC and ETH are supported by institutional funds, favorable policies, and technical analysis, with a high probability of breaking historical highs. Short strategies need caution; it is recommended to focus on long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips, and exercise caution when shorting, with proper stop-loss settings and avoiding holding losses.