Many people say that the 'Shanzhai Season' is over, but if it really is, what does that mean? — 90% of altcoins will form a lifeless horizontal line on the monthly chart, and then drop another 90% during a prolonged bear market, ultimately going to zero or being delisted. The remaining 10% of altcoins might barely increase by 10 times. According to this script, 90% of projects in the crypto space will be completely abandoned, and no one will dare to touch altcoins again. Is this reasonable? Does this align with the logic of the market ecosystem?

If in a 'bull market', only a few targets rise while the vast majority of assets remain silent, or even decline, does it deserve to be called a bull market? The core of a bull market is the diffusion of profit effects, sector rotation, and giving newcomers a chance to benefit. Even according to the conservative assumption of the 'decline of crypto dividends', quality altcoins should increase by 5 times, while trash altcoins should rise by 2 times. If there is not even this level of volatility, why should retail investors enter the market next time? Why should they believe in altcoins? How will market makers, exchanges, and project teams make a living?

Unless — this is the final carnival, and the big players are determined to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs, treating this round of the bull market as the last batch of leeks to be harvested. If that’s the case, I accept my losses. But until then, I still bet that the market will follow the most basic logic: capital never sleeps, and bubbles will always rotate. $BTC $ETH