ETH has rebounded all the way from the low point in April and is currently above the $4,700 mark. If 2024 is seen as the beginning of a bull market ignited by Bitcoin ETFs, then in 2025, it is likely to be Ethereum's turn to shine. This article dissects whether ETH can hit the $10,000 mark using six valuation methods!
01 ETH/BTC Ratio
First, we compare ETH and BTC for relative valuation.
The ETH/BTC ratio is actually very stable in the long term, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, which is at a historical lower position over the past five years, so ETH is currently 'undervalued'.
Using the average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518 over the past five years for estimation, assuming BTC stays around $120,000, the corresponding price for ETH would be $6,214. If we reference the previous bull market ETH/BTC ratio of 0.06-0.08 for estimation, still assuming BTC stays around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $7,200-$9,600.
02 Ethereum ETF and Institutional Holdings
As ETH prices soar, off-market funds are pouring into Ethereum ETFs. Many overlook the actual impact of Ethereum ETFs and institutional buying, which is not only sentimentally favorable but also represents significant buying pressure.
According to data from @SoSovalueCrypto, Ethereum spot ETFs have reached a new historical high, with a net inflow of $1.019 billion as of August 11, Eastern Time. The total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is currently $25.712 billion, with a holding amount reaching about 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the current ETH circulating supply. In comparison, the ETF percentage for BTC is 6.48%, indicating room for growth. Additionally, 70 Ethereum reserve entities hold about 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89% of the ETH circulating supply. BMNR has publicly stated its goal is to ultimately hold 5% of the global ETH circulating supply. After deducting the staked and locked 36.17 million, the free circulation supply is left at around 7.51 million.
The upcoming price calculations are based on a simple assumption: the reduced proportion of free circulation will proportionally raise the price per unit.
That is, new price = current price × (target free circulation supply / current free circulation supply)
If we view ETF and institutional reserves as a whole, they currently hold 7.85% of the total supply. If this proportion increases to 10% in the future, and assuming no significant changes in staking lock-up ratios, the free circulation supply would shrink to about 7.52 million coins, mechanically pushing the corresponding price to about $4,647; if it rises to 15%, it would push to about $5,070; if it rises to 20%, it would be close to $6,000.
This does not even consider the demand-side amplification effect; the actual increase may be higher. Additionally, the incremental funds from ETFs and institutions usually take some time to settle, meaning the price center of ETH will be raised steadily and long-term, rather than spiking in the short term.
03 Metcalfe's Law
Many people focus on price fluctuations and hot narratives when discussing ETH valuations but overlook the long-term support of on-chain activity for network value. Metcalfe's Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its active user count; applied to Ethereum, this means network value ≈ k × (daily active address count)².
Simply put, 'the more users there are, the more valuable the network becomes,' and the square growth of user numbers will lead to exponential growth in market value.
According to BitInfoCharts data, on August 13, 2025, the number of daily active addresses (DAA) on the Ethereum mainnet was about 971,486, with the current ETH price around $4,500, total circulating supply about 120.7 million coins, and a market cap of about $543.1 billion. Plugging into the formula gives the current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²).
With this k, different price scenarios under various activity levels can be calculated:
If DAA rises to 1 million, the price would be about $4,768 (+6%)
If DAA rises to 1.1 million, the price would be about $5,769 (+28.2%)
If optimistic about $1.3 million (close to 90% of the historical high), the price would be about $8,058 (+79.1%)
This calculation assumes that the amount staked and the circulating supply remain relatively stable, and that increased activity will directly amplify network value, thereby raising the price of a single ETH. Unlike ETF and institutional buying, Metcalfe's method reflects the endogenous growth of on-chain usage and economic activity, relying not on external fund inflow but on the compound accumulation of network effects.
Note that once activity and capital begin to resonate — with increased on-chain transactions, rising fees, and a rebound in burning, combined with the ETF and institutional chip contraction effects, ETH's price will be driven by both supply contraction and network expansion forces, and the acceleration may far exceed predictions based on a single factor.
04 NVT Model
NVT essentially acts like a 'crypto version of PE'. Given a reasonable NVT multiple (referencing historical ranges) and future daily transaction amounts, we can infer market cap and price.
NVT = Market Cap (USD) / Daily On-chain Transaction Amount (USD), thus currently NVT = 518B / 14B = 37
ETH's NVT has historically been roughly in the range of 60-110, currently sitting at a historically lower position. Assuming the NVT multiple is within a reasonable range of 60/80/90/100/110 in the next 6-12 months; on-chain transaction amounts (USD) considering volatility are expected to be in the future range of $7B-$14B/day.
6-Month Scenario
Conservative: NVT 70, Daily Transaction $7B → Market Cap ≈ $490B → Price ≈ $4,059
Benchmark: NVT 80, Daily Transaction $9B → Market Cap ≈ $720B → Price ≈ $5,965
Optimistic: NVT 90, Daily Transaction $12B → Market Cap ≈ $1,080B → Price ≈ $8,947
12-Month Scenario
Conservative: NVT 75, Daily Transaction $8B → Market Cap ≈ $600T → Price ≈ $4,971
Benchmark: NVT 90, Daily Transaction $10B → Market Cap ≈ $900T → Price ≈ $7,456
Optimistic: NVT 100, Daily Transaction $14B → Market Cap ≈ $1,400T → Price ≈ $11,598
In other words, the network effect of ETH is supporting a valuation range of $5,000-$12,000.
05 On-chain Cash Flow Model
Treat the on-chain 'revenue' (transaction fees + MEV, etc.) generated by the Ethereum protocol as cash flow to measure network value. With the expansion of the Ethereum application ecosystem, the growth of 'revenue' can enhance ETH's valuation.
Based on this idea, asset management company VanEck predicts that by 2025, with the introduction of ETFs and other favorable factors for Ethereum staking yields, the price of ETH could approach $6,000. As early as in the 2023 report, VanEck estimated the price of ETH, assuming that on-chain fees and usage continue to rise, predicting that by 2030, ETH could reach around $11,800. See the chart below:
06 K-Line Technical Analysis
@CryptoPainter believes that although ETH currently faces some historical selling pressure from the supply zone at the 2021 highs, the technical structure at the 4-hour level still shows that the highs and lows are slowly rising, with no obvious damage.
Observing from the ASR channel, the ETH price is oscillating upward above the orange average pressure zone, which is a strong pattern indicating that market demand is gradually digesting the supply near historical highs.
The daily ASR channel shows signs of breaking through the average pressure zone. The last similar breakthrough occurred in early 2024. If this breakthrough is successful, the daily target could directly reach the daily overbought line (around $5,600).
Another possibility is a repeat of the trend at the end of 2024, encountering extreme resistance at the upper edge of the orange channel.
Overall, the current situation remains positive, and there is a possibility that the ETH price could approach $6,000 in the medium term.
07 Crypto Analyst Scenario Simulation
Some crypto analysts and media have provided a series of scenario-based predictions for ETH prices:
1. Crypto analyst @VirtualBacon0x believes that ETH has entered a new macro bull market. In the baseline scenario, ETH is expected to rise to the $6,000-$7,000 range by the end of 2025, with a long-term target around $10,000 by mid-2026. If extremely optimistic, with the market in a frenzy, BTC hitting $200,000, and ETH outperforming, Virtual Bacon estimates that ETH could reach as high as $16,000.
2. Wall Street analyst Tom Lee bluntly stated in the Bankless podcast in July that in the short term, ETH should at least rebound to $4,000; and before the end of 2025, it is reasonable for ETH to rise to $7,000, or even reach $12,000 or $15,000.
3. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes gave a target price of around $10,000 for ETH by the end of 2025, which is an optimistic bull market scenario. In an article from July 2025, he emphasized that a shift in U.S. policy towards credit expansion would bring a lot of liquidity, combined with Western institutions regaining interest in Ethereum, these macro factors would be key catalysts for driving ETH prices higher.
4. The crypto media outlet Bankless proposed in its 2025 outlook that ETH could potentially challenge $15,000 in an extreme bull scenario. They indicated in their annual forecast that new drivers such as the AI craze could trigger a new wave of excitement in the crypto market, providing Ethereum with an opportunity to rise to the $10,000 level. The underlying assumptions include ample market liquidity, narrative trends (like AI + Crypto), and Ethereum's continued dominant position in the DeFi space.
08 Summary
By synthesizing six valuation methods, there is a high probability that ETH could reach the $6,000-$8,000 range in 2025. If market sentiment is high and on-chain activity continues to grow, breaking through $10,000 is not impossible, with extreme optimism potentially pushing it to the $12,000-$15,000 range.
This is not just 'market speculation', but a joint interpretation of on-chain data, fund behavior, and macro liquidity. Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches $10,000, ETH, as the infrastructure of the crypto ecosystem, has already established a foothold in multiple value pricing systems.
What does everyone think about the potential of ETH in this cycle? Feel free to comment and discuss.
Risk Warning: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The price of ETH is influenced by multiple factors including market sentiment, on-chain activity, and policy changes, and is highly volatile. Please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance and bear investment risks yourself.