Altcoin: Has the "season" begun?

Quick conclusion: Not a full altseason yet, but the market is in an early expansion phase: capital is starting to flow from BTC to major altcoins, breadth is improving, and many coins are breaking short-term highs.

5 key indicators (current status as of 13/8):

• BTC Dominance (BTC.D): decreased to ~60–61% from a peak of ~64% → a rotation signal beneficial for alt.

• Altcoin Season Index (ASI): around the 40–45 range → not confirmed altseason (≥75) but the trend is upward.

• ETH/BTC: short-term recovery; when this pair rises, altcoins often have a better chance.

• TOTAL2/TOTAL3: gradually increasing structure, many bullish candles with volume → signs of capital explosion.

• Derivatives: OI is increasing but funding is not too hot → still room, but prone to volatility.

When is it truly called an “explosion”?

• BTC.D breaks <59% and maintains for 3–5 days.

• ASI > 75 (maintain for ≥2 weeks).

• ETH/BTC breaks the nearest peak & maintains the trend.

• TOTAL3 closes above a multi-week resistance level with high volume.

7–10 day scenario:

• Base case (60%): BTC moves sideways/slowly rises; large-cap alts (ETH, SOL, BNB, LINK) lead → mid-cap/sector rotation follows.

• Acceleration (25%): triggers the above conditions → mini-altseason expands.

• Defense (15%): BTC surges strongly or breaks support → capital flows out of alts, leading to a widespread adjustment.

Short-term trading plan:

• Prioritize large-cap first (ETH, SOL, LINK), then mid-cap (OP/ARB, INJ).

• Watch for pullbacks towards EMA20/50 on the 4H chart or retest previous highs; enter gradually.

• Cut losses below the nearest bottom 2–3%; TP in steps of 8–12% (large-cap), 15–25% (mid-cap).

• Reduce risk if BTC.D reverses and rises >62% or if funding + OI heat up unusually.

Note: Meme/low-cap can “fly” but carry high risk.