#以太坊创历史新高倒计时 📈 Ethereum (ETH) broke through $4600 on August 13, with a 24-hour increase of over 7%, just 5% away from the historical high of $4877. The short-term market trend shows a clear divergence from long-term goals:

### 🔥 Short-term Key Resistance and Risks

- **$4700 Resistance**: On-chain indicators show this level as the +1σ active realized price level, which has historically triggered selling pressure. If the breakout fails, it may retrace to the support zone of $4200-$4300.

- **Leverage Risk**: The open contracts for mainstream altcoins have reached a historic peak of $47 billion, and high leverage increases volatility risk.

- **Market Sentiment**: Polymarket traders are betting on a 65% chance of reaching $5000 this month, but caution is needed for a potential retracement.

### 🚀 Long-term Technical Goals and Fundamental Support

1. **Technical Pattern Goals**:

- The Wyckoff model points to $6000-$6500;

- The monthly symmetrical triangle breakout target is $8070, and the ascending triangle target is $16700.

2. **Fundamental Drivers**:

- **Deflationary Mechanism**: Annualized deflation rate of 1.5%, with institutional demand exceeding new supply by 8 times;

- **Staking ETF**: Institutions like BlackRock are applying for staking ETFs, attracting conservative capital inflows;

- **RWA (Real World Assets on-chain)**: The on-chain market capitalization has surpassed $60 billion, with Ethereum capturing a trillion-dollar market value as a settlement layer.

### 💎 Conclusion

In the short term, it is important to monitor whether the $4700 resistance can be broken with volume. Volatility may increase under high leverage. In the medium to long term, the technical patterns and on-chain fundamentals (deflation + institutions + RWA) resonate; if the support level is maintained, the 6-8 month target looks towards $10000-$20000.