【Market Outlook on August 13, 2025】$BTC $ETH

Due to some matters, I haven't written my thoughts for a week, it's been a while. Ethereum has also arrived at the historical high I have long anticipated, only 200 points away from a new high. The narrative I have been waiting for has been gradually validated step by step. In my previous daily report on August 6, I mentioned that the market would be good in mid to late August, and the pullback is an opportunity. You can check at 蚣🀄️, and besides boosting my own confidence in holding, I hope to provide a bit of help to like-minded friends.

Looking back at the reasons for Ethereum's strong surge of 400 points yesterday, to make a long story short, this week, several U.S. companies collectively purchased over 2 million Ethereum, and MicroStrategy has gone even crazier in entering the market. Last night’s CPI was very favorable, and a rate cut in September is almost a certainty. This is undoubtedly the biggest catalyst, leading to discussions about whether to cut by 25BP or 50BP, causing a strong market rally.

From today's data, Ethereum's bullish trend will not be weakened, and it is unlikely to exhaust in the short term. I believe that without significant negative news, there is still room for Ethereum to rise. However, that being said, with such a strong surge, I, like everyone else, have a question mark in my mind. With institutions and whales performing so well, will they collectively dump it one day? Will there be a major crash? Based on various data and macro trends, I think the probability in the short term is low, and the next 1-3 months should still be relatively safe. I can't think of any significant negative news at the moment.

On the contrary, I think if a 50BP rate cut happens in September, it could become the next booster, reigniting Ethereum, altcoins, and the market. Even though I have been bullish since April and Ethereum has more than doubled since then, one should remain cautious while experiencing FOMO. I do not recommend blindly chasing highs; it’s better to manage waves and look for good entry opportunities. Also, tomorrow evening at 20:30, the U.S. unemployment data will be released, along with statements from Federal Reserve officials, which will likely cause some volatility.

From a technical perspective: Follow Crab Boss's lead and win the battle!

Bitcoin 4h support: 120786 Resistance: 118619

Ethereum 4h support: 4574 Resistance: 4690-4725

Today's Fear Index: 74 (Greed)

4-hour long-short ratio: 47.0% / 53.0%

Intraday hot news:

🪅Santiment: Ethereum whales are buying ETH that retail investors are selling.