XRP has surged over 600% since November, reaching a market capitalization of around $190 billion. This rally has caught a lot of attention as the market closely watches the Ripple lawsuit resolution, U.S. regulatory clarity, and growing ETF momentum.
But the big question is: Does XRPโs price still align with its fundamentals? Letโs take a deep dive.
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๐ XRP Valuation vs TVL: Extreme Ratios
XRPโs parent chain, the XRP Ledger (XRPL), currently has a Total Value Locked (TVL) of just $87.74 million (DefiLlama).
24-hour trading volume on XRPL DEX: $49,621
24-hour application fees: $1,467
This means XRPโs market capitalization is over 2,200 times its TVL and about 363,000 times its annual fee revenue. ๐ณ
Investors justify this high valuation based on expected future growth:
XRPL payment volume expansion
Stablecoin adoption
Company fund allocation
ETF capital inflows
If these dynamics materialize, XRPโs current price could be sustainable, even though on-chain usage remains modest for now.
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๐ Real-World Asset (RWA) Growth
XRPL has recently recorded $175.9 million in tokenized assets, a 52.25% increase in one month, including:
U.S. Treasury bonds: $120.6 million
Public equities: $55.4 million
Real estate: $4.3 million
Stablecoins: $67.3 million
This is one of the fastest growth rates in RWA crypto, indicating that XRPLโs scalability and future demand could drive XRP adoption.
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๐ XRP vs Ethereum
Ethereum remains the leading layer-1 blockchain:
Market cap: $516 billion
TVL: $92.06 billion
Daily application fees: $10.48 million
RWA managed projects: $7 billion
Ethereumโs market cap/TVL ratio = 5.6
XRPโs ratio = 2,200
XRP currently trades at around 40% of Ethereumโs market cap, leading some analysts to flag it as overvalued.
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๐ Technical Analysis: Bearish Divergence
XRPโs recent price surge is showing signs of slowing momentum:
Bearish divergence between price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Buying pressure weakening while price rises
Potential pullback:
XRPโs 20-2W EMA (purple wave): $2.32
Possible drop: 25%+ from current price
Historically, similar bearish divergence signals in 2017โ2018 triggered major corrections.
The $2.32 level is important as it represents the average price XRP holders paid over the past six months, potentially acting as a magnet and shakeout point before a recovery.
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โก Future Outlook
Despite bearish signals:
Some analysts believe XRP could reach $10 in the coming months.
ETF momentum, regulatory clarity, and XRPLโs RWA adoption could drive long-term growth.
This sets up a high-risk, high-reward environment, making careful positioning essential for traders.
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๐ Key Takeaways
XRP surged 600% since November, market cap ~$190B
TVL = $87.74M, market cap 2,200x TVL
XRPL RWA assets grew 52.25% in 1 month
XRP vs Ethereum: potential overvaluation
Technicals indicate bearish divergence โ possible 25% correction
Long-term potential: $10 if catalysts continue
๐๐ฅ XRP is at a critical juncture โ bulls are hopeful, bears are cautious. Trade wisely and watch the market closely! ๐ฐ
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