Pantera Capital has once again demonstrated its deep market insight, delivering a Bitcoin price prediction in November 2022 that turned out to be almost spot-on to the dollar. Back then, Bitcoin was languishing near its cycle low of $16,000, and sentiment in the market was crushed. Against the prevailing fear, Pantera boldly forecast that BTC would hit $117,482 by August 11, 2025.
Fast-forward to that exact date — not only did Bitcoin reach the target, it closed above $119,000, validating both their confidence and the Four-Year Halving Cycle Theory that many had started to doubt. This rally marks an astonishing 660% surge from the 2022 bottom, showing that even in an era of shifting market dynamics, certain historical patterns still hold power.
📊 Institutional Domination at Unprecedented Levels
The 2025 market is vastly different from earlier cycles. Institutional participation has reached record-breaking territory:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs now control 7.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply — about 1.491 million BTC.
Public and private companies collectively hold another 1.36 million BTC.
This concentrated ownership has changed the market’s supply dynamics. With 95% of Bitcoin already mined, new issuance from miners is a tiny fraction of total supply. As Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard notes, the real source of liquidity now comes from buying out long-term holders, not fresh mining rewards.
💡 The Debate Over the Halving’s Relevance
Critics argue that the traditional halving effect is becoming irrelevant because the block reward is now too small to meaningfully affect supply. However, the 2022–2025 rally — perfectly timed to the cycle — suggests otherwise. Despite these structural changes, market psychology, scarcity narratives, and capital inflows continue to align around halving-driven supply shocks.
In short, while institutions may be rewriting parts of Bitcoin’s story, Pantera’s perfect call proves the old rhythm still beats beneath the market’s surface — and this cycle’s ending could be even more dramatic than the past.
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