ETH bought with the money for two cups of milk tea in 2017 can now be exchanged for a ticket to Southeast Asia — but to turn it into a down payment of about 10,000 dollars in a first-tier city, can this dream really come true? As someone who has been watching ETH for eight years, let me share some of my bottom-line judgments today.
Currently, ETH is hovering around 4200 dollars, and this position is like a bungee jumper standing at the edge of a cliff: stepping forward leads to the sunlight of the historical high of 4800, while stepping back could tumble back into the shadow of 3500. But the real question is, is this bungee cord strong enough?
The funding situation is sending dangerous signals: last week, the net inflow of ETH reached a record 268 million dollars in a single week, Grayscale's holding addresses surged by 40% in three months, and more strangely, there was a line in Tesla's financial report stating 'digital asset reserves' — these institutions are not here to give out money; they have caught the scent of regulatory loosening.
It's essential to clearly understand the three major engines driving this market movement:
Firstly, the U.S. GENIUS Act is not a good thing but a nuclear-level policy dividend. The Treasury stockpiling coins means ETH is transforming from a 'popular toy' to a 'strategic asset'. The SEC's Project Crypto appears to be regulatory, but in reality, it is a stamp of compliance, directly leading to a revolution in ETH's valuation system.
Secondly, the Dencun upgrade, which reduced gas fees by 60%, is just an appetizer; the real fear is that Layer 2's transaction volume will surpass that of the mainnet. When Wall Street stocks begin to settle on the ETH chain, RWA will not bring just incremental funds but a migration of the entire financial system — at that point, discussing market capitalization will seem too shallow.
Thirdly, the trillion-dollar stablecoin under the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, 70% is anchored to the ETH ecosystem. This is like inflating a balloon with helium; as long as the knot is loosened a bit, it can float to heights you can't comprehend.
However, I must splash some cold water: those shouting ten thousand dollars now are either foolish or malicious. The SEC's regulation has always been like boiling a frog in warm water; once ETF rules tighten, the speed at which institutions withdraw can turn K-lines into free falls. Don't forget that ETH has halved seven times in history; now at 4200 dollars, it has already touched the glass ceiling of the mid-stage bull market, and a 5% drop in BTC can lead to a 10% drop in ETH, a correlation that has yet to fail.
What’s even more deadly is this group of rising stars, Solana. Recently, its DeFi trading volume increased by 30%, which is not coincidental. When users discover that transfers are fast and cheap, ETH's first-mover advantage will turn into a technical liability. Just like Nokia stubbornly clung to the Symbian system, advantages can often reverse overnight.
My judgment: the probability of ETH reaching 10,000 dollars before the end of this year, at most 20%. Three prerequisites are indispensable: BTC stabilizing at 120,000 dollars, the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by at least 75 basis points, and RWA scale exceeding 50 billion dollars. This is akin to asking Messi, Ronaldo, and Neymar to score goals for the Chinese team simultaneously; you can assess the possibility yourself.
However, if we extend the period to 2030, I would dare to give it an 80% chance of breaking 10,000. When central banks start using ETH to settle cross-border payments, and NFTs become the infrastructure for digital identity, the value anchor of this thing will not be the dollar, but the weight of the global digital economy. By then, you'll find that ten thousand dollars is just the starting point.
My real trading strategy: 45% in ETH, 30% staking for an annualized 3.8%, and 15% playing cross-chain arbitrage on Arbitrum. The advice I give to fans is simple: don't bet on a one-sided market, invest 100 dollars weekly, double down below 3800, and reduce positions by one-third above 6500. Remember, those who make big money in the crypto market are the ones who outlast their opponents.
If you want to delve deep into the crypto circle but can't find a clue, and want to quickly get started and understand the information gap, click on my profile and follow me to gain firsthand information and in-depth analysis.
