Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Pullbacks Historically Signal Price Surges
Over the last decade, 80% of the time when Bitcoin’s long-term holders reduce their share of total supply from a peak (like the current pullback), the price has skyrocketed shortly after. Moreover, in cases where the price was already rallying during these pullbacks, such as the present moment, the success rate of subsequent price surges has been 100% according to on-chain data analysis.
Long-term holders, who typically hold BTC for over 155 days, tend to accumulate during bear markets and distribute coins when prices rise. This behavior leads to a temporary reduction in their share of supply but historically signals buoyant market sentiment and upcoming price rallies. Recent data shows long-term holders reduced 21.5K BTC in August 2025 against a backdrop of stable or rising BTC prices, supporting a positive outlook.
