XRP has risen over 550% since November, reaching over $3 on Tuesday. The strong increase of this cryptocurrency has led technical analyst Gert van Lagen to predict a broader upward trend towards $34 in this bull cycle.
XRP's Double Bottom Suggests 10x Increase
According to Van Lagen, XRP has escaped a seven-year-long double bottom pattern after rising above the neckline at around $1.80.
The cryptocurrency then returned to the neckline, acting as support. On the chart, such a retest typically signals that a strong breakout is imminent and traders are confident in the price rising higher.
Using the 2.00 Fibonacci extension level of the model, Van Lagen's measured volatility forecast indicates a target of $34 by mid-2026.
This setup reflects XRP's price movements from 2014–2017, when a similar multi-year base transitioned into a parabolic rally, pushing the XRP/USD price up over 100,000%.
The XRP market has seen such strong fluctuations in recent years. For example, the price of XRP has increased by 1,072% since the lows of 2022. Previously, during the 2020-2021 period, the price of XRP surged over 1,625%.
The XRP bull run of 2020–21 largely stemmed from the near-zero interest rate environment in the United States. The 2022–25 rally has primarily been driven by progress in the Ripple lawsuit, increasing legal transparency, relisting on exchanges, and optimism from ETF funds.
This subsequent trend continues to lead XRP bulls into 2025 with a 95% likelihood of ETF approval, and forecasts suggest this token could rise to $27 if given the green light, closely aligning with Van Lagen's target.
XRP Ledger Index at Risk of Overvaluation
Theo DefiLlama, the growth rate of the parent chain XRP, XRP Ledger (XRPL), is much slower than that of other major layer 1 platforms, including Ethereum.
XRP's market capitalization of $190 billion is about 2,200 times larger than the total value locked (TVL) of $85 million. This figure is in stark contrast to Ethereum's ratio of around 5.6, even though XRP's valuation is only about 40% of Ethereum's.
Such a discrepancy has raised concerns about XRP's overvaluation compared to on-chain activity. As of August, over 95% of XRP supply was in profit, a threshold that has consistently preceded strong price corrections during the bull runs of 2020–21 and 2022–25, as shown in the Glassnode chart below.
When a large number of holders have such profits, profit-taking activity often accelerates, creating selling pressure. This move could challenge XRP's ability to maintain the current upward trend towards $30.