Bitcoin Returns to the "Warm Zone": ETF Fund Flow Boosts Market, Attention Now on Macroeconomic Data Trends
According to the latest analysis from cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, Bitcoin has entered a relatively healthy "warm zone" (neither overheating nor excessively cooling). This assessment is mainly based on recent changes in market fund flows and subtle shifts in investor sentiment.
At the beginning of August, spot ETFs experienced four consecutive trading days of capital outflow, with a cumulative net outflow of up to $1.45 billion. However, this trend began to reverse on August 6, with net inflows exceeding $770 million within just three days, and a single-day net inflow of $178 million recorded on August 11.
This shift in fund flows, combined with cryptocurrency fund companies continuously increasing their Bitcoin holdings, has injected new vitality into the market. As a result, the price of Bitcoin briefly rose from $118,000 to $122,100, although it later fell back to around $115,800, yet the continued entry of institutional investors still provides strong support for the price.
It is worth noting that the correlation between the Bitcoin market and macroeconomic indicators has significantly strengthened recently. Analysts believe that the upcoming release of key U.S. inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), is likely to be a key factor in determining Bitcoin's next move.
If the data meets expectations, Bitcoin is expected to break through previous highs; conversely, it may undergo a short-term correction testing the $110,000 support level.
However, analysts also emphasize that despite short-term volatility risks, Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain solid, primarily due to the continuously growing institutional holdings, the expanding real-world use cases, and robust spot market demand.
From a market sentiment perspective, Bitcoin investors are currently showing a clear differentiation. On-chain data indicates that about 70% of short-term holders are still in profit, but the proportion choosing to take profits has dropped to 45%. This phenomenon reflects that the market is in a relatively balanced state, neither overly euphoric nor showing significant panic.
Bitfinex believes that in this context, Bitcoin prices are likely to oscillate around the average cost line of new investors for a period until more decisive market catalysts emerge.
