4000 is just the beginning of the altcoin launch!

Although the big brother once again broke through 122,000 yesterday, it has been a month of high-level consolidation since the new high in July. During this period, several listed companies continued to increase their holdings in the big brother. The ETF had a net inflow of $178 million yesterday, showing a buying frenzy, yet it has not left the larger fluctuation zone. Only when there is enough supply and positive news arrives will it continue to rise.

In such a critical period, another leader is needed to take the lead, in line with the judgment on the 7th. The E/B exchange rate continues to rise, from 0.32 to 0.37, with E rising from around 3600 to 4366, a gain of over 20%, pulling the market out of the quagmire and boosting the morale of the troops.

On August 7th, you can recall that over the past few years, E has been a typical bad actor, each time rising for a while but not sustaining for more than a couple of months. For example, from November to December last year, it rose from 2400 to 4100, then retraced to 1385. Buying high will definitely lead to losses. However, recently E has been quite different, with almost no deep corrections. Once sold, it cannot be repurchased. Even if there is an adjustment, it is just high-level fluctuations.

August 7

Especially during the times when the big brother was most hesitant and facing difficulties, it was E that first broke the deadlock. Recently, E's movement strangely reminds me of the last cycle in 2021, when E broke through 4300 amidst cheers in May 2021, then retraced to a low of 1700, leading to market pessimism. I remember that no one believed E would rise again; several big voices even bet that E wouldn’t surpass 2500. Doesn’t this sound familiar? The result was that, without warning, E triggered a main surge, rising continuously for four months by 182% to 4868, setting a new historical high. This directly ignited market confidence, leading to a comprehensive altcoin bull market. It is precisely because of such experiences that old retail investors pay close attention to E's movements, but this time E seems a bit different.

Last time it was mentioned that the fundamentals of E have changed. Currently, the rise of E is driven by capital accumulation, not by subjective factors such as technical or ecological feedback. This is also a significant reason why altcoins are struggling to rise; the capital is either going into the big brother or into E, but not into altcoins.

Don't forget that E has another hard fork in the fourth quarter, and with the staking ETF potentially passing, E will ultimately return to speculation around its technology. This is a good thing; currently, the piled-up E is at 4300, and it will definitely be higher by then. As long as it does not break 4000 in the short term, E's first task of breaking the new high of 4868 is just around the corner, which will excite the market even more.

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Speaking of altcoins, due to the inability of altcoins to rise, their popularity cannot build up. Even if the big brother and E continue to reach new highs, it has nothing to do with them. Most people still hold altcoins, and the most fatal aspect is that most altcoins are in a garbage time of sideways trading, falling and fluctuating, consuming retail investors' patience, and implanting a bearish market mentality, doubting that altcoins have any chance. As soon as altcoins rise slightly, everyone thinks of selling, which further increases the difficulty of altcoins rising. In the last cycle, many retail investors who were hoping to break even in 2020-2021 were quick to sell as soon as altcoins returned to breakeven, worried about being stuck again. After that, in 2021, altcoins took off completely, and the missteps in rhythm made it very uncomfortable to trade.

In fact, if you change your thinking, it becomes clear. The project parties only have a limited amount of money to create momentum. In recent years, with so many projects launched in the market, surely this is the last push. When they are all pulling, it’s about who pulls harder to attract attention, rather than going against the trend. It’s about consuming capital quickly during this time.

Similarly, for you, having finally waited for such a good opportunity so close to cross-layer, trading B is not to break even, nor to waste a lot of time during this period. As it approaches the final step, one must still have some dreams; otherwise, what's the difference with a salted fish?

Next, you should mainly focus on two directions in altcoins. The first direction revolves around the ecosystem of E, such as the staking sector including SSV, RPL, etc. You can watch for retractions; before the returns are realized, there will be continuous speculation around staking ETFs, as well as in the DEFI and RWA sectors. Because these are relatively easy to speculate on, in the last cycle to this cycle, some leading altcoins emerged and survived, representing a high degree of certain consensus, having been washed out for so long without pressure, which is conducive to a rally.

The second direction is the BN Alpha sector mentioned in the diary on the 7th, in the first and a half market, aligning with predictions. Small market cap projects are doing well, such as MYX which increased 20 times in four days, followed by XNY which rose 5 times in three days, and MAT which increased 3 times in a week. Some MEME projects are jumping several times, showing that the smaller they are, the better they perform; they are all quick and short-lived. If they don’t rise, they rise significantly, so remember to sell at the peak and buy back when they drop. This is suitable for small capital to accumulate.

1. The daily inflow of the Western Ethereum ETF exceeded $1 billion for the first time yesterday. This can be seen as an affirmation of E, with signs of entry accelerating. It seems that this round has no voices from small V and the foundation, only institutions and listed companies. As mentioned last time, including BN's presence, now the Koreans have also arrived. This is a historic moment, a positive signal.

2. The Western July CPI will be released tonight at 20:30. Currently, the Federal Reserve is trying every means to stabilize financial assets, using time to exchange for space, changing nothing but the soup; today, before the data comes out, the big brother fluctuated, and the market remains in a state of panic, which is normal. Only when this news is out can it perform better.

3. SEC Chairman: The SEC's resolution of the case with Ripple promotes the establishment of a clear regulatory framework. It mentioned that cryptocurrencies need corresponding rules for regulation, hinting at a future framework. In short, one can sense that regulation is on the horizon, but the efficiency of the West's formulation is well understood by everyone - it's extraordinarily slow. It will take some time, and this also determines the regulatory methods of many countries globally.

4. Greed and Fear Index, 68 - Greed.

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