I took a look at today's CPI data, 2.7, core CPI 3.1, breaking 3, theoretically speaking, it is impossible to cut interest rates.

Last September, in order to win the election, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points, with inflation at 2.4 and core CPI at 3.3. From the data, it really doesn't look good for a rate cut. Various predictions from large financial groups put the probability of a rate cut at 90%, which basically confirms a rate cut. Last year's events may repeat under pressure.

We cannot decide whether to cut rates or not; we need to analyze the situation after the cut, as well as the subsequent trends. If there is no cut, it will definitely be a bearish signal, and the market will drop; this is certain because it does not meet expectations.

I looked at UBS's report logic, the logic behind the rise of US stocks, the earnings reports of the seven giants, their operational conditions, and considered political factors, including what Luis said in the live stream about Nvidia payments and purchasing matters.

I feel a bit uneasy, so I haven't been able to sleep, going through materials and analyzing data. There are too many data points and financial logic involved. When I have time, I will organize it and publish a separate article.

To conclude, the second half of the year is bound to be a turbulent period, US stocks need to correct before rebounding, and by 2026, they will reach even higher peaks.

This aligns with the transition from bull to bear, following a similar rhythm as the bull market; the bear market won't be quite like before.