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What do Wall Street, YPF, and a tender for 15 trillion pesos have in common? 🤔⬇️

🔥 The Argentine financial pulse beats between stock market euphoria and judicial tension. While the S&P Merval approaches historic highs in pesos and Argentine ADRs shine in New York, a key decision about the future of YPF is being cooked up in the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. Can a court order change the direction of the markets? What signals does the interest rate give us about the economic climate? This Tuesday is not just any Tuesday: it is a day where every piece of data counts and every movement has a story.

📚 I explain how the markets, justice, and economic policy intertwine on a single chessboard. 👇

Judge Loretta Preska ordered the Argentine State to deliver 51% of YPF's shares, and today it will be decided whether that measure is suspended or executed. The ruling, which is around 16.1 billion dollars, could escalate to the U.S. Supreme Court if it is not favorable. Meanwhile, the markets react with a mix of optimism and caution: the Merval rises 1.5%, Edenor leads the ADRs with increases of 4%, and YPF barely moves. Why? Because uncertainty weighs more than any chart.

📈 Understanding this moment is key to anticipating what’s coming in rates, bonds, and expectations.

The interest rate on stock market repos skyrocketed to 45% nominal annual, reflecting the volatility of a market without a clear reference. The Central Bank seeks for the system to generate its own endogenous rate, but that has altered liquidity. The Treasury faces a crucial tender for 15 trillion pesos. Will a rate of 65% be validated as in the last operation? Everything points to yes, in a strategy to renew maturities before the elections. The inverted Lecap curve suggests that the market expects a drop in inflation, but not without paying a high price first.

👀 On this board, each piece has its logic and each move its emotional impact. (Continues in comments 💬⬇️)