I. Market status: Who is buying? Who is waiting?

1. Institutional funds are entering significantly, but the pace is slowing.

  • Spot ETF holdings reach a new high: BlackRock, Fidelity, and other institutions hold 1.54 million ETH (12.7% of the circulating supply), but the weekly growth rate has decreased from +3.2% to +1.5%, indicating a slowdown in inflows.

  • CME futures holdings reached $4.8 billion, but the short position ratio increased to 22% (up from 18% last week), indicating that some institutions are starting to hedge risks.

  • Pension fund inflows of $720 million, but mainly from the United States; European and Asian institutions remain cautious.

2. Divergence between retail investors and whales widens.

  • Korean Upbit ETH/KRW premium is 1.8%, but trading volume decreased by 15% month-on-month, indicating weakened retail chasing interest.

  • Whale addresses (>100,000 ETH) increased holdings by 2.1% this week, but some early whales have started to reduce holdings (address starting with 0x7a3 transferred 32,000 ETH to exchanges).

  • The staked unlocked funds have not been sold off on a large scale, but Lido's redemption queue has surpassed 30,000 ETH in a single day, which requires vigilance against short-term selling pressure.

3. Technical upgrade expectations boost market sentiment.

  • Proto-Danksharding testnet TPS reached 8,000, but the mainnet launch still faces delay risks (originally scheduled for September, possibly postponed to Q4).

  • Gas fee reduction expectations: If successful, DeFi TVL may return to $100B+, but if the upgrade falls short, the market may quickly correct.

✅ Bullish signals.

  1. Institutional buying remains: BlackRock ETF daily net inflow > 5,000 ETH; if sustained, the price may break $4,200.

  2. On-chain chip lockup: Exchange balances only 15.6 million ETH (5.2 days trading volume), limited short-term selling pressure.

  3. Options market bullish: Open interest in $4,000 call options surged, accounting for 35% of open contracts.

⚠️ Bearish risk.

  1. Technical indicators are overbought: weekly RSI at 71, close to the overbought threshold (75), increasing the probability of a short-term correction.

  2. Grayscale ETHE unlocking pressure: 280,000 ETH awaiting unlocking, with the discount narrowing to 3.2%, which may trigger arbitrage selling.

  3. Macro uncertainty: Before the September Federal Reserve interest rate decision, market volatility may surge.

III. Key price ranges & operational strategies.

Scenario price range trigger condition probability response strategy Breakout up $4,200-4,500 CME positions > $5 billion + ETF weekly inflow > 30,000 ETH 40% take partial profits at highs (20%-30%) Consolidation $3,600-4,200 Grayscale selling pressure absorbed by institutions + profit-taking before the upgrade 45% swing trading, buy low and sell high Deep correction < $3,500 Macro risk + whale selling 15% stop loss, wait for $3,200 support.

Specific operational recommendations.

  • Short-term traders:

    • Break above $4,200 to chase the rise, but set a stop loss at $3,950 (4-hour closing price).

    • Reduce holdings below $3,800 and observe the support at $3,600.

  • Long-term holders:

    • Increase positions when the staking rate >35% (currently 32%), pay attention to the upgrade progress in September.

  • Hedging strategy:

    • Buy December $3,500 put options (premium < position 2%), to protect against black swan events.

IV. Key on-chain monitoring indicators.

  1. BlackRock ETF address (starting with 0x5a8): If daily net inflow < 3,000 ETH, watch for institutional withdrawal.

  2. Whale movements: If the top 10 non-exchange addresses reduce holdings by >10,000 ETH in a single day, it may indicate a top.

  3. USDT issuance increase: Correlation with ETH price is 0.89; if weekly issuance < $200 million, upward momentum may weaken.

V. Conclusion: Cautious in the short term, still optimistic in the medium to long term.

  • 1-3 months: Possible fluctuation between $3,600-$4,200; if it breaks $4,200, then target $4,500.

  • Q4 key: If the upgrade goes smoothly, target $5,000+; if delayed or macro headwinds arise, may retest $3,000.

  • Biggest risks: September Federal Reserve interest rate decision + Grayscale selling pressure.

📌 Strategy summary:

  • Reduce some positions at highs, keep cash to wait for better buying points.

  • Stay focused on on-chain data; whale movements or institutional withdrawals need immediate response.

  • Hedging against black swans is essential to avoid one-sided bets.

#ETH突破4400 #机构疯抢以太坊 #CPI数据来袭 #Strategy增持比特币