⚡ \$120K BTC Rally — On-Chain Signals Point to More Upside Potential

Over the past week, Bitcoin has climbed back near its record peak, now trading above \$120,000 and closing in on the \$123,000 all-time high. With a 5.1% weekly gain, it stands among the top-performing cryptocurrencies.

On-chain TRON-based USDT transfer patterns are offering insight into market behavior during price swings. According to Amr Taha from CryptoQuant, recent TRC-20 USDT transaction trends resemble previous setups that preceded Bitcoin price shifts.

The analysis segments transactions into six tiers — from \$100 retail trades to \$10 million “super whale” moves — to separate everyday activity from institutional-scale transfers. Moving BTC into USDT and shifting stablecoins into private wallets tends to ease buying pressure on the spot market.

For example, on July 16, \$10M+ USDT transfers totaled \$5.2B before BTC dropped 4.5%, and on July 23, a similar \$5.8B spike came ahead of a 3.8% dip within 48 hours.

Currently, such massive transfers are uncommon, suggesting big holders are not actively rotating into stablecoins. Instead, whale outflows may hint they’re holding rather than selling.

**Bitcoin Participation Trends & Breakout Outlook**

Another perspective from CryptoQuant’s ShayanMarkets examined the average executed order size in Bitcoin futures to gauge whether retail or institutional traders dominate.

By dividing total traded volume by the number of orders, the data shows that late 2024 and early 2025 rallies aligned with whale-led activity. Recently, retail-sized trades have increased while whale participation has declined — implying that large investors may be holding assets bought at lower levels or waiting for a more favorable market setup.

Historically, whale dominance at price peaks has been linked to profit-taking phases, when major players distribute holdings.