Tonight's CPI data is a critical juncture, especially against the backdrop of heightened market sensitivity, and its influence cannot be ignored.
If the CPI is below expectations, it indicates a easing of inflation pressures, and the market is likely to interpret this as a signal for the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts. At that time, US stocks and crypto assets may experience a short-term rally, and market sentiment will quickly improve.
If the CPI is above expectations, the market may worry about a delay in the interest rate cut process, leading to a rapid dip in the short term, and bears may seize this opportunity to release energy.
If the CPI meets expectations, the market reaction may be relatively muted, and funds will shift their focus to the next catalytic event, such as the Federal Reserve meeting, PPI data, etc.
Regardless of the final outcome of the data, volatility is almost unavoidable, though the direction may not be clearly apparent at first. Especially in the few minutes following the data release, it is easy to see false breakouts and false pullbacks, creating a "double-edged sword" scenario. For short-term traders, it is essential to strictly control positions during this extreme emotional phase to avoid being eliminated by the market.
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