$ETH Evening Thoughts:
Talking through the charts: The second contract hasn't changed much and is still operating within this range. If the second contract is to form an M-top on the hourly level, it must break below the neckline marked in the chart at 4166. Only by breaking below 4166 can the M-top of the second contract be formed, and the decline will be very smooth.
The support at 4166 for the second contract has held 4 times; every time it hits 4166, there will be a corresponding rebound. However, you can see that the rebound strength on the third and fourth times touching the 4166 support is not as strong as the first and second times.
If it tests the 4166 support again, it is highly likely to break through. To illustrate: if you hit your head against the wall, and it doesn't break the first time, nor the second time, it means you are lucky. But if you continue to hit your head a third, fourth, or fifth time, would your head still not break? Are you the legendary iron-headed child?
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For the second contract, break through 4310 with volume and chase long positions to catch the rebound. If it breaks 4273 with volume, chase short positions on the right side. Pay attention to the changes in volume and set your stop-loss.
The second contract must hold above 4307 on the hourly level to look upward at 4335-4370. If it can't hold above 4307, there's no need to look up anymore.
On the 4-hour level, if it breaks below 4265, look downward at 4186-4153-4074. Why is the second contract so strong? Because the exchange rate is desperately supporting it.
Continuing to look at the chart: The daily level of the second contract is brewing an expanding large trumpet pattern, and there have been two consecutive high-position doji candles on the daily level. If these two daily doji candles do not break, it will be very difficult for the second contract to continue rising. To break through these two high-position doji candles,
external positive news is needed for a smooth breakthrough; it is quite difficult for the second contract to break through on its own.
No matter how the second contract consolidates and oscillates, as long as it does not break below the daily neckline at 3883, everything remains within a controllable range. If it breaks below, it must test the lower boundary of the expanding large trumpet pattern at 3273. It won’t happen in a day or two; there will be a process even if it goes down. It will continue to fluctuate down, and finally reach the target position, provided it breaks below 3883 first. Meeting adjourned.