Recently, I reviewed the market prospects for Dogecoin and found that reaching $1 is by no means easy. Although speculative enthusiasm may temporarily drive up prices, the current market conditions have not matured enough to support a parabolic breakout.


For Dogecoin to reach $1, three core conditions must be met.
1. Ethereum breaks through its historical high, confirming the arrival of a bull market.
Ethereum needs to stabilize above the historical peak of 2021 to set the risk appetite for the entire crypto market—only when the overall market enters a clear bull market can Dogecoin, as a representative of altcoins, attract sufficient funding attention.

2. The Bitcoin halving cycle window opens.
According to the halving cycle pattern (approximately 486 days, expected around August 18, 2025), this time window needs to provide historical rebound momentum to the market, acting as a "time catalyst" for Dogecoin's price breakthrough.

3. Global liquidity continues to expand.
Global M2 money supply needs to maintain a growth trend to provide funding support for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). Only when the overall market risk appetite remains high can high-elasticity currencies like Dogecoin have sufficient upward momentum.


Current market status: There is still a significant gap to the target.
- Although Ethereum has broken through $4000, it is still constrained by the dual pressure of the high point in May 2021 and the historical peak, and has not yet confirmed a bull market pattern.
- Dogecoin's own trend hides risks: Recently, the K-line has shown a "top tail candle" pattern, which historically often accompanies a pullback, indicating short-term reversal pressure.
- Overall, it remains in a high-volatility consolidation phase, more likely to experience false breakouts in both directions rather than a clear upward trend.

From a liquidity perspective, the M2 indicator shows a short-term rebound opportunity, but it is not a decisive factor—historically, there have been instances where M2 increased while the crypto market entered a bear market, so it can only be used as a "reference item" rather than a "necessary condition."


Summary: Short-term fluctuations dominate, long-term conditions need to mature.
Currently, the price of Dogecoin is about $0.22, and it may fluctuate around $0.30 in the short term. To truly reach $1, we must wait for three major conditions to be met simultaneously: Ethereum breaking through its historical high, the halving cycle window opening, and global liquidity continuing to support.

At this stage, we must remain rational: Dogecoin's "moon landing" journey is still far away, and we need to closely monitor the overall trend of the multi-asset market to avoid being swept up by short-term speculative sentiment.

$DOGE $ETH

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