The cryptocurrency market is like a chess game, moves need to consider three steps. The news front is the open move, while the capital front is the hidden move.
ETH today's trend: critical level stuck, countdown to trend change
Currently, ETH is trapped in the 'meat grinder range' of 4280-4160, with the Bollinger Bands contracting to 143 points, MACD green bars shrinking to 0.03, but KDJ is repeatedly entangled around the 50 axis, leading to intense long and short battles. This situation is very similar to the silent period when Bitcoin was stuck at $27,000 in October 2023—subsequently surging 15% in the following 3 days.
Institutional buying confirmed, the truth behind the Gas fee crash
1. Institutional Bulk Buying Data Correction
FG Nexus actually purchased 48,123 ETH at a cost of $4,215, forming a 'double insurance' with Fundamental Global's position of 47,000. Compared to Grayscale's bulk buying path of Bitcoin in 2021, traditional capital is laying out a strategy of 'building positions in batches + key level bottom fishing'.
2. The AB side of the Gas Fee Crash
Gas fees dropped to 0.7 gwei, mainly due to Layer 2 transactions accounting for over 60%. However, after the Dencun upgrade, although the mainnet has reduced fees, it has lost its 'ecological main stage' status—similar to the traffic redistribution when the internet migrated from PC to mobile.
3. Volatility Patterns in the European Session
Statistics show that the average volatility of ETH during the European session over the past 30 days reached 4.2%, higher than the US session's 3.8%. Today need to closely monitor: if it breaks 4280 with trading volume exceeding the 1-hour average by 80%, the bullish target aims directly at 4370; if it drops below 4160, the short target shifts down to 4120.
Qing Yao Strategy: Three No-Principles during the consolidation period
Do not chase the rise: consolidating around 4220 for over 3 hours → Stop opening positions
Do not panic sell: after dropping below 4160, observe the strength of the 15-minute rebound. If unable to recover 4180 → consider short positions again
Do not guess the top: after breaking 4280, the first resistance level is 4320, rather than directly aiming for 4370
In this trend change, are you ready to bet or watch?
The bullets of institutional buying are already chambered, the ecological war of Layer 2 is quietly starting, and the Europeans are about to click their mice. Will ETH replicate the main upward wave of May tonight, or will it reenact the flash crash scenario of June?
