Focusing on the US July CPI data, a critical window of financial market volatility opens

Tonight, the US July CPI series data will be revealed, and this 'eye of the storm' affects the nerves of financial markets such as US stocks and Bitcoin (BTC). The current market is oscillating within a range, holding its breath for the data release; the results may deeply influence the direction of Federal Reserve policy, thereby reshaping asset price trends.

1. CPI Data: The 'Touchstone' for Federal Reserve Policy Game

The US July unadjusted CPI annual rate, seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, core CPI monthly rate, and annual rate data, with discrepancies between previous values and expectations hiding enigmas. The previous core CPI value of 2.9% is not 'frightening,' but if the data exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve's conservative stance of 'holding onto interest rates' may strengthen; if it meets or even falls below expectations, the calls for rate cuts from Trump’s radical faction will gain momentum, with the expectation of a rate cut in September almost set in stone, the market will focus more on the extent of the cut—whether it will be a 'super surge' of 50 basis points or a routine pace of 25 basis points, which is crucial for whether BTC can challenge the new high of 10,000 points.

2. Market Game: The Power of Change Accumulated Amidst Volatility

The US stock market’s fluctuations and BTC’s corrections seem calm, but in reality, there are undercurrents. The US stock market fell before closing, while spot premiums rose against the trend, signaling 'selling pressure temporarily eased, new shorts providing liquidity'; BTC's correction digests selling pressure, with bullish structures still dominant. As long as CPI does not show extreme bearish signals, BTC is expected to break new highs this week, riding the data wind, and start a new round of market trends.

3. Policy Divergence and Asset Direction: The Extent of Rate Cuts Determines the Outcome

The internal struggle between the 'conservatives vs. radicals' in the Federal Reserve is intensifying, with CPI data becoming a key lever. The data performance will influence the extent of the rate cut in September; if a 'strong stimulus' of 50 basis points is implemented, BTC and other risk assets may welcome a '10,000 point start' level surge; 25 basis points would be a routine push. Regardless of the outcome, strong expectations for rate cuts have already formed in the market, and after the data release, asset prices will accelerate to find a new balance. This 'data + policy' dual-driven wealth game is entering its final countdown! #CPI数据来袭 $BTC $ETH