Regarding the prediction of tonight's CPI data and market trends, I have two thoughts to share for your reference. It should be noted that these two thoughts are only valid for specific values; if the final CPI result is different, then this analysis will not hold.

When discussing CPI, U.S. oil prices are a key factor that cannot be ignored, as there is a clear positive correlation between the two. From past data, oil prices in June were higher than in May, which directly led to the CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7%. However, entering July, oil prices are clearly lower than in June. Based on this, the current market expectation of 2.8% is likely unreasonable, and a comprehensive judgment suggests that CPI is more likely to fall within the range of 2.6%-2.7%. Below, I will analyze these two possible scenarios separately, emphasizing again: if the data is another value, this analysis will not be applicable.

The first scenario, if CPI is 2.6%: This value is both lower than market expectations and below last month's 2.7%. In this case, the market is likely to rise quickly at first, mainly driven by retail investors entering the market. However, institutions will likely conduct a sell-off to clean up the retail investors' long leverage in order to acquire liquidity, and then begin a new round of buying. The overall trend can be summarized as: rise, then fall, then rise again.

The second scenario, if CPI is 2.7%: This value is the same as last month. At this point, the market may first enter a sideways state, followed by a trend of falling and then rising.

In short, the above analysis only applies to the two cases of CPI being 2.6% and 2.7%. Everyone needs to make rational judgments based on actual data and operate cautiously.

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