Today's market focus is mainly on the CPI data at 8:30 PM:
If favorable, the market may continue to rally; if unfavorable, it is likely to consolidate for a while!
Currently, the market generally expects:
Core CPI: Monthly rate 0.3%, Annual rate 3.0%-3.1%; CPI: Monthly rate 0.2%, Annual rate around 2.7%-2.8%.
All four data points have rebounded compared to last month, so tonight's game logic is very simple:
Slightly below expectations / previous value → Favorable; Slightly above expectations / previous value → Unfavorable; Significantly deviating from expectations → Major unfavorable.
However, overall, compared to the last major non-farm payroll report, the probability of a rapid drop is low.
If there is a pullback, it could be a slow opportunity for positioning.
However, I also understand that if it really falls, many people will still be hesitant to buy, and may even feel that a bear market has arrived.
