Dogecoin’s path to the much-talked-about $1 milestone may still be some distance away — and one analyst believes it all hinges on three major conditions.
Ethereum: The First Gate
According to the analysis, Dogecoin’s next parabolic wave won’t ignite until Ethereum breaks decisively above its 2021 peaks. While ETH recently hit a fresh cycle high and surpassed $4,000, it still sits below the last two resistance levels from that year — the May 2021 high and the all-time high.
> “Once ETH clears this final hurdle, it will have officially entered a bull market,” the analyst says. Until then, talk of “Doge to the moon” is premature.
Dogecoin’s Current Phase: Accumulation, Not Acceleration
The analyst describes DOGE’s market behavior as a wide, uneven accumulation zone — a bottoming process marked by potential fakeouts in both directions. Even in a favorable environment, external factors could trigger “one more” downside sweep before an altseason truly begins.
The Halving-Cycle Timing Factor
History plays a role in the outlook. In past market cycles, the 486-day mark after a Bitcoin halving has been a key turning point — often followed by a major correction and then a rally. This timing pattern, observed in the 2021 cycle, is now approaching again, potentially aligning with a shift in market momentum.
Liquidity: A Necessary but Imperfect Tailwind
Global M2 money supply growth — a measure of available liquidity — is another variable. Rising M2 often supports risk assets, but it’s not a guarantee. “Everyone watches M2, and yes, it says there’s a chance for a rally in this window. But crypto has fallen in the past even with M2 rising,” the analyst notes. Liquidity is useful, but not infallible.
The Three Conditions for $1 DOGE
From these macro, timing, and liquidity insights, the analyst outlines three prerequisites for Dogecoin’s journey to $1:
1. Ethereum must break above its 2021 all-time high, confirming a broad bull market.
2. The halving-cycle “extension” window must open, providing historical timing support.
3. Global M2 growth must stay positive, keeping risk appetite intact.
Until all three align, the much-anticipated Dogecoin breakout may remain just a dream — but once they do, the stage could be set for a historic run.
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