August 12 Market Analysis!!!
Macroeconomic Perspective
Overnight, Trump expanded the candidate pool for the Federal Reserve Chair, increasing pressure; and announced a tax exemption for gold. No new news on tariffs.
Expectations for interest rate cuts continue to ferment, leading to a broad rise in non-USD commodities.
BTC hit 122,000 before pulling back, ETH tested 4,370, and gold also retraced.
Technical Observation
BTC:
The downward structure remains intact.
Key Center: 115,500-119,900; Main Trend Center: 100,000-110,900.
111,700 serves as structural support, with a short-term test at 122,000; the previous high of 123,300 remains resistance.
The 4H K-line shows upward momentum, but the MACD has crossed down above the zero axis, and the momentum bars are weakening, indicating a soft trend.
ETH:
The bottom support zone of 4,144-4,180 has established a structural foundation.
The 4H level shows a platform oscillation, with an upward target of 4,352-4,486.
The MACD has crossed down above the zero axis, and the momentum bars are insufficient in volume, showing signs of divergence.
4,240-4,260 is a key level; breaking below may trigger a retracement, while holding above may continue to rise.
Operational Strategy
BTC
Long Position: 118,300, Stop Loss 117,900, Target 119,700-120,700
Short Position: 120,800, Stop Loss 121,300, Target 116,500-118,500-119,500
ETH
Long Position: 4,195, Stop Loss 4,175, Target 4,250-4,297-4,325; if broken, look for 4,386-4,450
Short Position: 4,340, Stop Loss 4,357, Target 4,200-4,260-4,300
Directional View
The overall trend continues to be bullish. Short positions are limited to tactical plays, taking profit as seen.
Daily Focus: $SOON $PORT3 $BIO
