MEANING OF THE UPCOMING U.S. CPI REPORT AT 8:30 AM ET TOMORROW

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is a key inflation gauge with major impact on the Fed’s interest rate policy and global financial markets.

Scenarios & Implications

1. CPI above forecast

• USD ↑, Treasury yields ↑, stocks ↓, gold ↓.

• Fed may keep rates high for longer.

2. CPI in line with forecast

• Mild market reaction, moves driven mainly by current Fed expectations.

3. CPI below forecast

• USD ↓, Treasury yields ↓, stocks ↑, gold ↑.

• Fed may cut rates as early as September; strong risk-on sentiment, markets likely to rally.

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