Countdown to Trump-Putin meeting! Rumors of land concessions between Ukraine and Russia trigger a battle for the BTC million support level, with institutions quietly positioning!
Friends in the crypto community, a significant signal is here!
This Friday (August 15), Trump and Putin will hold their first face-to-face meeting in Alaska in six years! This game, which Trump calls a 'test meeting,' may not only determine the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict but also send BTC prices into a frenzy at the $119,000 mark!
Geopolitical bomb detonates, BTC million support level becomes the focus.
According to the latest news, Trump stated that 'the result can be known in the first two minutes of the meeting,' suggesting that Russia and Ukraine may need to 'give up land for peace.' This statement instantly ignited market nerves—historical experience shows that escalating geopolitical crises often drive safe-haven assets to surge, and BTC, as 'digital gold,' is currently caught at a critical juncture!
Technical indicators show that BTC is nearing the 'life and death line':
Current price is $119,000, precisely landing near the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.0% ($118,050). This area is considered the 'last defense line for bulls.'
The amplitude in the past 24 hours was only 0.26%, but the increase of 0.14% suggests that funds are quietly entering, which may be a precursor to a reversal.
If the $118,000 support holds, BTC is expected to rebound and challenge previous highs; if it breaks, it may drop to the $95,000 area.
History repeating? How geopolitical crises influence the crypto market.
Looking back at the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, BTC fell 10% in a single day, but then surged over 11% within three days due to safe-haven demand. A similar script may be replayed now:
If negotiations break down: geopolitical tensions escalate, and funds may flow from traditional markets into the crypto space, with BTC becoming the preferred safe haven due to its 'decentralized' nature.
If an agreement is reached: market sentiment may ease, short-term profit-taking may withdraw, but institutional long-term positioning could support prices.
Notably, the U.S. recently allowed pension plans to invest in cryptocurrency and there have been reports of tariffs on gold, which directly drives demand for BTC as a substitute—gold faces policy risks, while BTC's 'digital gold' attribute is being repriced by institutions!
Institutional covert battle: the funding games behind the million support level.
Data reveals astonishing trends:
The digital asset company has accumulated over $113 billion in BTC reserves, and the scale of Ethereum-related investment tools has reached $13 billion.
The correlation between BTC and Nasdaq has risen to 0.82, but geopolitical crises may break this correlation and drive independent market movements.
Analysts point out that the current 'healthy adjustment' of BTC is indeed a good opportunity for institutional buying. If the $118,000 support holds, it may challenge $150,000 by year-end!
How are people in the crypto circle responding?
Keep an eye on the support level: $118,000 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line. If it breaks, observe; if it holds, consider light long positions.
Pay attention to institutional movements: U.S. policy direction and institutional accumulation data are key to judging mid- to long-term trends.
Geopolitical sentiment premium: If weekend talks release signals beyond expectations, BTC may break through!
Personal opinion
Technical analysis personal view: BTC is currently stuck at the critical support level of $118,000, which is the short-term bull-bear dividing line. If it holds, combined with institutional buying and geopolitical safe-haven demand, it could rebound and challenge previous highs; if it breaks, it may drop to $95,000. However, institutions hold over $113 billion, and with U.S. policy support, the mid- to long-term target remains $150,000, while short-term fluctuations may present buying opportunities.
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