'The whale's chips are the trump card, Trump's tweet is the variable, and the breakthrough of 4400 needs resonance between technical and capital aspects.'

4250 is the key watershed, and 4400 still has pressure.

  1. 1-hour K-line core data:

    • Bollinger Bands: Current price is 4270, upper band is 4255, lower band is 4180. After breaking through the middle band at 4130, the upper band creates short-term resistance; it needs to hold above 4250 to open up upward space.

    • MACD indicator: DIF and DEA are still below the zero axis, but the green bars are shortening, indicating that bearish strength is weakening while bullish momentum is building.

Conclusion: 4250 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line; if it closes above today, 4400 is likely to be tested; if it breaks below 4100, it may pull back to the 4050-4000 area.

Whale buys $1 billion, OTC trading hides secrets.

  1. Latest developments:

    • Address 0xe17c: Bought 12,020 ETH from FalconX within an hour, total holdings reach 233,000 ETH, divided into 7 addresses, suspected institutional distribution operation.

    • Address 0x235: Bought 29,300 ETH from Galaxy Digital OTC channel within 24 hours, avoiding market price disruption with OTC trading.

  2. Core logic:

    • Whales accumulate through OTC to reduce spot market volatility and lay the groundwork for subsequent trends.

    • Historical pattern: Before ETH broke 4000 in 2021, whales also heavily bought through OTC, and rose 28% within a month afterwards.

    • Short-term selling pressure has eased, but future batch selling should be monitored.

Trump's 'gold tax exemption' tweet has heated up the sentiment in the crypto circle.

  1. Key information:

    • Trump tweeted: 'Gold will not be Tariffed!', the market interprets this as a relaxation in regulation towards 'alternative assets'.

    • Gold, like BTC/ETH, is an anti-inflation asset; a policy reversal may drive funds into the crypto market.

    • Trump has publicly supported Bitcoin before, and this tweet is seen as an 'implicit positive signal'.

  2. Sentiment impact:

    • If he clearly mentions cryptocurrency in the future, it may trigger a short-term rally for mainstream coins like ETH.

Short-term 'fight for a breakout', medium to long-term 'follow the whales'.

  1. Short-term:

    • If it holds above 4250, then lightly position for 4300, setting a stop loss at 4100; if it breaks below 4100, wait for a pullback to 4050-4000 to buy low.

  2. Medium to long-term:

    • A whale with $1 billion in holdings is a 'strong bullish signal', accumulate in batches at lows, and pay attention to whale address movements.

Pitfall reminder: Beware of false advertisements like 'register for a 10% return', there is no 'free lunch'.

Focus today: Can 4400 break through?

Key variable:

  1. Will the whale continue to accumulate?

  2. Will Trump tweet again?

Do you think ETH can break through 4400 today? Follow Qingyao and leave your prediction in the comments! #加密总市值创历史新高