SHORT-TERM ANALYSIS — BTC & CME GAP ($117–119K)

Over the weekend, BTC bounced to ~$122K, leaving a CME gap in the $117K–$119K range (the important mark is $117.4K). History shows that most CME gaps eventually get filled, so the likelihood of the price returning to this range is high. Currently, the price is around ~$119K — very close to the gap area.

Technical analysis:

Strength level & price structure: the rise to $122K creates a clear resistance area; after that, the price retraced to ~119K. >90% of gaps are filled according to historical statistics, but they do not necessarily fill immediately — it could be within a few days to a few weeks.

3 market scenarios

Bearish (most likely scenario): the price breaks below $119K, heading to $117.4K to fill the gap. After filling the gap, if the momentum continues to weaken, it may test the $110–115K range.

Neutral / Re-test and recovery: the price fills the gap and then bounces strongly, confirming support at $117–119K → continues to test $122K again.

Bullish (least likely): the price holds above $119K, with significant buying volume, breaking up to create a new ATH — the gap may still not be filled in the short term.

Trading & risk management (execution points)

Short-term trade: enter when there are signs of rejection in the $121–122K range + increased volume; main TP at $117.4K; SL set according to swing high (for example, +1–2% above entry).

Buy-the-dip: only buy when seeing a clear demand response in the gap area. SL below the bottom of the gap; minimum target is retesting $122K.

Size & Risk: risk per trade ≤ 1–2% of capital; do not excessively use margin; always set SL.

Short conclusion

The gap $117–119K is very noteworthy and likely to be filled. However, the timing and method of filling depend on volume and market sentiment. Do you want me to continue analyzing with volume, OI, RSI, or the current order book to provide a specific trading plan? Please leave a comment #Write2Earn