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Bitcoin Hits $120,000, Can It Succeed This Time?

Market Overview
• Price: $118,779, down 3.1% from historical peak
• Key Levels: Support at $116,359, Resistance at $120,000
• Market Parameters: Market cap share 58.6%, Daily trading volume $61.8 billion

Policy and Technology Drivers
• Three major U.S. institutions promote friendly policies: CFTC opens spot trading, SEC 'Project Crypto'
• Trump administration's strategic reserve plan continues to absorb assets
• Japan's SBI Holdings submits XRP/BTC mixed ETF application
• Off-exchange reserves drop to 155,000, a historical low, indicating a trend of hoarding coins

Community Sentiment
• Bullish sentiment at 85.28%, core arguments: ETF progress, Layer 2 ecosystem expansion
• Technical divergence: Some believe we are at the end of the fifth wave and should be cautious of a pullback
• Potential risks: August options expiration impact, uncertainty of U.S. election policies

Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, there are relatively more optimistic voices in the market. Some institutions expect Bitcoin to rise to $135,000 in the third quarter of this year, and to surge to $200,000 by the end of the year. However, some analysts warn that Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, and geopolitical crises, inflation, and other financial risks, as well as major political events, could all impact the market. Investors should pay attention to market dynamics and invest cautiously.

#BTC