kithe
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After observing Hyperion (@hyperion_xyz) for a while, my view is relatively conservative.
First of all, although it is a leading DEX in the Aptos ecosystem, the active user base and on-chain capital of Aptos itself still have a significant gap compared to mainstream public chains like Ethereum and Solana. Hyperion's TVL is currently around 130 million USD, which looks not low, but a large part relies on liquidity incentives. If the rewards decrease, it will be significantly more challenging to retain users.
Secondly, the hybrid Orderbook + AMM model is technically sound, but the market already has many mature competitors (such as Raydium, ApeX, dYdX, etc.), and they have a larger user base and trading depth behind them. It will be quite challenging for Hyperion to surpass them comprehensively in trading experience, fees, and market coverage.
Looking at the token economy, there is a significant gap between the market cap of $RION and fully diluted valuation, indicating considerable unlocking pressure in the future; if trading volume cannot continue to increase, the likelihood of token price pressure is very high.
Overall, Hyperion's position within the Aptos ecosystem is stable, but the ecological ceiling, reliance on incentives, and external competition are all risk points worth paying attention to. In the short term, it is suitable to monitor developments, but whether it can break through the ecological limitations in the long term still needs observation.
First of all, although it is a leading DEX in the Aptos ecosystem, the active user base and on-chain capital of Aptos itself still have a significant gap compared to mainstream public chains like Ethereum and Solana. Hyperion's TVL is currently around 130 million USD, which looks not low, but a large part relies on liquidity incentives. If the rewards decrease, it will be significantly more challenging to retain users.
Secondly, the hybrid Orderbook + AMM model is technically sound, but the market already has many mature competitors (such as Raydium, ApeX, dYdX, etc.), and they have a larger user base and trading depth behind them. It will be quite challenging for Hyperion to surpass them comprehensively in trading experience, fees, and market coverage.
Looking at the token economy, there is a significant gap between the market cap of $RION and fully diluted valuation, indicating considerable unlocking pressure in the future; if trading volume cannot continue to increase, the likelihood of token price pressure is very high.
Overall, Hyperion's position within the Aptos ecosystem is stable, but the ecological ceiling, reliance on incentives, and external competition are all risk points worth paying attention to. In the short term, it is suitable to monitor developments, but whether it can break through the ecological limitations in the long term still needs observation.
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