Tomorrow night (August 12, 20:30), traders around the world will hold their breath, closely watching the U.S. July CPI data. The market consensus has sounded the alarm: core inflation may break the 3% year-on-year mark, reaching a 5-month high; overall inflation year-on-year at 2.8%, rising for the third consecutive month! If the data holds true, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September will plummet from 91%, and the recently set Bitcoin record of $122,000 may instantly turn into a battleground for bulls and bears.
More dangerous signals are hidden in the details—
Tariff inflation has drawn blood! Morgan Stanley issues an urgent warning: Trump's tariffs are violently pushing up prices of toys, sports goods, and furniture. After corporate inventories are cleared, the July CPI may witness a cost-passing 'tsunami'.
Gold plummeted 2% in a single day! The $3,400 defense line collapsed overnight, hedge funds frantically sold off safe-haven assets—this is not a technical adjustment, but a gambler's naked fear of the 'stagflation ghost'
The Fed is trapped in the ultimate paradox: on one hand, the job market is rapidly cooling (July employment ratio falls to a 3-year low), on the other hand, inflation is roaring back. If tonight's data explodes, Powell will be forced to choose between 'recession' and 'inflation', and the global liquidity gate may urgently close!
This is a trial more lethal than non-farm payrolls, whispers on Wall Street are circulating: when Bitcoin at $122,000 and gold at $3,360 part ways, capital has already sensed it—tonight’s CPI will either ignite the bull market engine or trigger a bomb fuse!
Institutions are swallowing hundreds of billions in chips, the 'doomsday machine' behind the violent surge of BTC and ETH has been activated!
Bitcoin surged 3.2% in one day, breaking the $122,000 mark (just 1% away from the historical high!), while Ethereum skyrocketed 21% in 7 days, standing at $4,300, hitting a three-year high! This round of frenzy is not just a retail celebration—institutional giants are quietly maneuvering.
$113 billion in BTC and $13 billion in ETH have been locked up by listed asset management companies, with the weekly accumulation amount equivalent to the GDP of a small country!
The Trump family’s 'crypto empire' is surfacing: Eric Trump prominently supports Ethereum, and his company World Liberty Financial (WLFI) is plotting to tokenize a listed company, political capital becomes new fuel!
Tomorrow night’s CPI: the 'judgment moment' for bulls!
All eyes are on the U.S. July CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time on August 12! If inflation cools (expected core CPI year-on-year at 3%), the probability of a rate cut in September will soar to 91.5% (CME FedWatch data) at that time.
BTC may lightning strike past the historical peak of $123,000, igniting an $1.8 billion short massacre (the short squeeze powder keg has already been laid!)
ETH bullish options are betting wildly on $6,000! Data from Deribit shows that the trading volume of the December $6,000 call options surged by 300%, with Wall Street consensus that ETH will replicate the 'crazy bull market' of 2021!
Major earthquake warning: Hedge funds are frantically buying 'doomsday insurance'!
Despite explosive upward momentum, smart money has quietly positioned for downside hedges:
Short-term implied volatility of ETH skyrockets to 70% (BTC only 35%), panic buying suggests a potential 10% flash crash after CPI!
Technical indicators reveal a 'death signal': BTC has seen three highs and lows at the $122K level, with $1 billion in sell orders accumulated in the ETH $4,300-$4,350 range. The institute warns: a trap for bulls has been set, and a short squeeze could be imminent!
Ultimate script:
On Friday, Trump met with Putin in Alaska. If a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is reached, global risk assets will receive a nuclear-level boost! Combined with Fed Vice Chairman Bowman’s hawkish support for a September rate cut, hundreds of billions in pensions (401k) may storm the crypto market—$120 billion ready to sweep up BTC at any moment!
Ayu's bold claim: If CPI is below 3%, go long with your eyes closed! $122K is not the peak, but a new starting point for the bull market! However, if the data explodes—$119K support level will be a battleground for bulls and bears, blood will flow like rivers! Watch Ayu’s hundred-times sniper strategy tonight!
#比特币市值超越亚马逊 #Strategy增持比特币 $BTC
