The moment ETH broke through 4300, the market immediately split into two factions — some shouted that the bull market door has opened, while others clutched their chips in fear, worried that a crash was imminent.

But rather than following the crowd, I prefer to pull you to look at historical data. Do you remember?

Last March, it just stood at 4000, and in April it dropped directly to 2911;

In May it surged to 3980, and in August it fell below 2112;

By December it touched 4109, and then in April 2025, it fell directly to 1384.

These several instances of breaking 4000 all hide the same signal: volatility will suddenly amplify, and we must tighten our risk awareness.

The technical aspect needs to be analyzed: in the short term, the moving average trend is a barometer — when the moving average is rising, there’s still room for optimism; once the moving average turns downward, we must stay alert. In the long-term dimension, the MACD indicator is still supporting the bulls, and the general direction hasn’t turned bearish yet.

But the market is always a contradiction:

The bulls believe that breaking 4300 is a vote of confidence by funds, and it might surge all the way to previous highs;

The bears focus on historical shadows, thinking that if the sentiment cools down, the market could turn downward at any moment.

A reminder for both types of players:

For friends trading short-term fluctuations, don’t rush to exhaust all your bullets; leave some room in your position and clearly define your take-profit and stop-loss lines — the volatility at this position leaves no room for carelessness.

For long-term holders, it might be wise to turn off the K-line and not be swayed by short-term fluctuations. The fundamentals of ETH aren’t facing major issues; real opportunities are never spotted, but endured.

Ultimately, standing at 4300, ETH has the potential to go up or down. But rather than guessing the direction, it’s more important to hold onto rationality: don’t let your account balance bounce with the market's emotions, and don’t comfort yourself with 'this time is different.'

Those who survive in the market have never just bet on a successful breakthrough; they remember to fasten their seatbelts during the celebrations.

It's better for one person to spot support levels than for a team to outline key points in advance; on the edge of liquidation, it’s better to hear someone say 'let's close half the position' than to grit your teeth and endure alone. There’s no need to make the pain of solitary struggle a habit. We explore the direction and control the risks, you just need to follow the rhythm. I’ve always been here, waiting for you to set sail together.

If your execution isn’t strong, you might want to follow @bit多多 and learn to operate with Duoduo.