After BTC broke the $120,000 mark, volatility intensified, with a 24-hour increase of 3.8%, reaching the previous high of $122,000; however, divergences are emerging on the chart - the 4-hour K-line closed negative, with trading volume surging by 18%, and selling pressure quietly accumulating. Is this rally a strong institutional squeeze or a trap to lure buyers? Should retail investors chase the rise now, or wait and observe?
Three major positive news resonate
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is approaching
J.P. Morgan's latest assessment: A 25 basis point rate cut is highly probable in September, with potentially three consecutive cuts within the year; if the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4%, the possibility of a 50 basis point 'violent rate cut' increases. Looking back in history, the interest rate cut cycle in 2020 drove BTC to surge by $64,000; can a new round of liquidity easing replicate this market?
ETF funds continue to flow in
BlackRock's BTC ETF attracted $1.2 billion in a single week, a new high since the halving; CME futures open interest surpassed $15 billion, with bullish options accounting for 63%. The wave of corporate purchases continues, with Metaplanet increasing its holdings by 797 BTC, surpassing Tesla's holdings, becoming a new engine of the market.
Ecosystem heat and risk coexist
Ordinals protocol NFT daily trading volume exceeds 5,000 pieces, Layer2 locked amount surpasses $8 billion; however, Tether's weekly issuance increased by $4 billion, with the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) breaking 1.2, and the accumulation of leveraged funds hides potential dangers, a pullback may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.
Technical signals of bullish and bearish intertwine
Daily level contradictions emerge
MACD golden cross continues to expand, Bollinger Bands open upward, but RSI has overbought to 78, needing caution against a historical repeat of a 17% pullback in 2023.
4-hour level alarm triggered
MACD histogram shows continued negative growth, KDJ forms a death cross, MA10 and MA30 show a downward trend. The $128,000 mark gathers $3.7 billion in options contracts, becoming a key watershed for the bull-bear showdown.
Key points are clear
Support level rises to $115,000, breaking below may trigger a defense at the $110,000 mark; if the resistance level of $128,000 is breached, $130,000 is just a step away.
Judgment perspective: Risks and opportunities under institutional control
"Retail investors should not be misled by 'pressure-free rises!'" CME open interest surged by 47%, but Canaan Technology's mining machine gross margin plummeted by 29%. Under the backdrop of institutionalized computing power, miner selling pressure has dropped to an 18-month low. BTC is negatively correlated with the US stock VIX index at -0.73, enhancing its safe-haven attribute, but Google search popularity is only 45, indicating a divergence between sentiment and capital, concealing volatility risks.
Operational advice
Aggressive: Light long positions at $120,000, stop loss at $114,000, target at $128,000-$132,000, position control ≤3%;
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to the range of $115,000-$118,000 to gradually build positions, with each investment ≤20% of assets;
Red line warning: Spot positions should not exceed 50%, stay away from high leverage operations!
$128,000 becomes the line of life and death - breaching this could bring $130,000 within reach, failing to hold may pull back to $110,000. If the (GENIUS Act) is implemented, institutions like BlackRock will increase the BTC allocation ratio from 0.3% to 1%, with an incremental fund of $80 billion possibly pushing it to $150,000. Current technical contradictory signals suggest: institutions may quietly adjust their positions while boosting prices, retail investors chasing highs should beware of becoming bag holders. This week’s market is likely to either break or fall, and technical analysts have fastened their seat belts!
Cognition determines the outcome. When the market diverges, do you choose to be the prey or the hunter? If you want real-time point analysis and to keep up with precise rhythms, you can follow along for firsthand strategies!
