As of August 11, 2025, Bitcoin's market capitalization has risen to $2.428 trillion, surpassing Amazon's $2.374 trillion, ranking sixth globally among assets, only behind gold, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, and Google's parent company Alphabet, highlighting Bitcoin's strong rise in global asset allocation.
Crypto-friendly signals under the Trump era
The latest surge in Bitcoin is closely related to changes in the U.S. political environment. Last week, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order allowing cryptocurrencies to be included in 401(k) retirement accounts, which is seen as a significant boon for the crypto industry. This move could unleash up to $9 trillion in potential capital inflows into the digital asset market, nearly four times the current market value of Bitcoin. Market analysts point out that this policy has directly stimulated institutional investor enthusiasm, pushing Bitcoin's price from $117,478 on August 7 to over $120,000.
More broadly, the Republican-led 'Crypto Week' earlier this month passed several bills, including the (GENIUS Act), providing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. These initiatives have ended long-standing regulatory uncertainty, allowing Bitcoin to shift from a fringe asset to mainstream allocation. Trump himself has called himself the 'crypto president,' and his team has even pushed for the establishment of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, further strengthening market confidence. In contrast, the regulatory pressure of the past few years had caused severe price volatility for Bitcoin; today's policy shift acts like a shot of adrenaline, allowing Bitcoin to steadily rise in the global asset rankings.
However, this dependence on policy also brings concerns. If the Democrats regain control of Congress in the future, or international coordination strengthens anti-money laundering regulations, Bitcoin's gains may face a pullback. Investors need to be cautious; although the policy dividends are strong, they are not guaranteed.
ETF as a Rising Engine
The core driving force behind Bitcoin's rise is the massive inflow of institutional funds. Since 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a money-raising tool, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) surpassing $86 billion in assets under management, far exceeding Grayscale Trust. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $252.6 million last week, totaling a net inflow of $54.4 billion. This is not just retail FOMO; Wall Street giants are taking action: Bernstein analysts predict that by the end of 2025, spot Bitcoin ETF assets will reach $190 billion.
Data shows that institutions hold over 30% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, including exchanges, ETFs, publicly traded companies, and sovereign entities. Japanese company Metaplanet recently added 463 Bitcoins to its reserves, totaling over 17,500; companies like MicroStrategy continue to incorporate Bitcoin into their balance sheets. This 'corporate Bitcoin reserve strategy' is spreading from Silicon Valley to the global stage, with only about 900 new Bitcoins added to supply daily, while institutional demand exceeds that by more than five times, leading to liquidity tightening and pushing prices upward. The process of institutionalization is accelerating Bitcoin's transition from a speculative asset to a store of value. However, it should be noted that concentrated ETF liquidity also amplifies volatility.
Safe-Haven Demand and Federal Reserve Expectations
Global macro uncertainty is another driving force behind Bitcoin's rise. In 2025, as geopolitical conflicts escalate and inflation remains high, gold prices reach historic highs, benefiting Bitcoin as 'digital gold.' Year-to-date, Bitcoin has risen by 25.2%, second only to gold's 29%. Investors view it as a hedging tool, especially when the dollar is weak: this month, the dollar index fell, pushing Bitcoin to new record highs in euro terms, although it has set records in dollar terms.
The Federal Reserve's policy expectations further amplify this effect. The market bets on a 92.7% probability of a rate cut in September, which will release liquidity and stimulate risk assets. Historical data shows that easing cycles are often accompanied by Bitcoin bull markets: before the Fed raised rates in 2017, Bitcoin soared from $1,000 to $19,000; a similar scenario is now unfolding, with analysts expecting Bitcoin to reach $135,000 to $199,000 by the end of the year.
Volatility has not dissipated
Despite strong momentum, Bitcoin is not without risks. Historical volatility has reached 60%, and multiple pullbacks have been observed this year. Quantum computing threatens crypto security, with some experts believing it could break Bitcoin's algorithm in 5-10 years. Additionally, seasonal factors show that August is often weak; 10x Research warns that if inflows slow down, prices could break down. On a deeper level, excessive institutionalization may lead to 'whale' manipulation: a single sell-off can trigger a chain reaction. Elliott wave theorists predict that a painful bear market will begin in 2026. Investors should diversify their allocations and avoid leveraged chasing.
Finally, thank you for watching! Follow Yan for more insights! I hope to use my years of experience and lessons in the crypto space to help you avoid detours and double your assets!
Continued Attention: BCH MYX ILV BNB ETH ENA