ETH today's market: Walking a tightrope at the $4200 mark, the long-short battle enters a decisive moment.
The current market is like a pot of boiling warm water, seemingly calm but with undercurrents swirling. As of 19:20, the ETH price is stuck around $4200, with a slight decrease of 0.24% during the day, while Bitcoin has increased by 1.25% in the same period. Ethereum's weak performance is akin to being pressed by the 'slow motion button.' On the 1-hour chart, the price is compressed within a narrow range of $4100-$4400, with the middle Bollinger Band acting as a dividing line between bulls and bears, and the $4200 mark hanging over all traders like the sword of Damocles.
Bears dominate but a trend change is imminent, insufficient volume hides concerns.
Although the green bars of the MACD indicator are still below the zero axis, the length of the bars continues to shrink, and the DIF line has shown signs of turning, like a submarine about to break the surface. More alarmingly, the 1-hour K-line shows the RSI value breaking above the 70 overbought zone before retreating, with clear signals of volume-price divergence—the price reached a new high of $4349, yet the trading volume shrank by 20% compared to the previous 4 hours, suggesting that bullish momentum seems strong but is weak.
In terms of the Bollinger Bands, the price is hovering close to the middle band, with the upper band at $4361 and the lower band at $3823 forming an 'iron cage,' while the golden cross structure of MA10 and MA30 suggests short-term support is rising. However, the real key lies in the Fibonacci retracement levels: if it breaks below $4054, it may trigger stop-loss orders from technical traders; if it breaks above $4401, one should be wary of prior platform resistance.
ETF funds are surging beneath the surface, with major players' actions hiding secrets.
The most noteworthy signal in today's market comes from:
ETF continues to drain: The net inflow of spot ETH ETF exceeded $300 million in a single day, with institutions like Grayscale and BlackRock locking in through ETFs, further reducing the exchange's circulation, creating 'artificial scarcity.'
Signs of major players adjusting positions: BOSS Wallet monitored multiple large transactions of 600 ETH, with prices concentrated in the $3900-$4020 range, suspected institutional accumulation below $4000.
The aftermath of V's 'decentralization': Although V did not directly comment on the market, his July statement about 'centralized exchanges going to hell' is still fermenting, with trading volume on decentralized exchanges surging 30% in July, possibly diverting some traditional traders.
Qingyao's strategy: Hold steady on short-term trades, wait for golden cross signals in the medium term.
Short-term traders: The current price is in a 'three no zone'—no clear direction, no volume support, no major news driving it. It is recommended to follow the crocodile rule: position long near $4200 or try short above $4400, but keep the position within 3%.
Medium-term investors: Focus on the MACD golden cross signal. If the DIF line crosses above the DEA line, and the red bars extend above the zero axis, one can cautiously position long, targeting the $4400-$4500 range. Conversely, if the green bars re-expand and break below $4100, one should be wary of a C-wave pullback to $3800.
Key data insight: Will history repeat itself?
Looking back at the July market, ETH hovered around $3000 for 12 days before skyrocketing 15% in a single day due to the approval of the ETF. The current market environment is very similar to that time:
Similarities: RSI overbought, volume-price divergence, consolidation at key levels.
Differences: This time institutional funds are entering through ETFs rather than directly sweeping the secondary market.
Historical data shows that the consolidation period of ETH near key resistance levels typically lasts 8-12 days. Today marks the 10th day, and the window for a trend change is about to close.
The weekend may bring a 'thrilling leap.'
According to the TD sequence indicator, this weekend may become a turning point in the market. If Bitcoin can break through $125,000 first, ETH is likely to follow suit; if BTC encounters resistance at $125,000, then one should be cautious about ETH retesting the psychological level of $4000.
Final reminder: The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is patience. At the $4200 'crossroads,' it may be wise to learn from the cheetah—lie in wait, observe, and wait for the moment to strike. Follow Qingyao to get the latest information!#加密总市值创历史新高
