Bitcoin experiences a deep pullback! What major moves are institutions hiding? Understand the market's undercurrents in one article.
On August 11, the price of Bitcoin briefly broke through the $122,000 mark, but soon encountered a volatile pullback, with the 24-hour increase narrowing to 2.1%. Behind this roller coaster market, is it a short-term adjustment or a trend reversal? This article breaks down the core logic of the market, reveals the latest movements of institutions, and helps you grasp new opportunities in the crypto market!
1. Price Fluctuation: Is the pullback a 'fake fall' or a 'real drop'?
As of 7:30 PM that day, the Bitcoin price stabilized around $120,600, showing a significant rebound from the previous day's low of $117,900. Technically, the 4-hour candlestick indicates:
MACD Indicator: Histogram remains negative and is gradually lengthening, with bearish forces dominant; the short-term downward trend remains unchanged;
KDJ Indicator: Death cross formed, neutral value of 63 suggests a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, further downside needs to be watched;
Key Levels: Support at $118,000, resistance at $122,300. If the support level is broken, it may trigger a deeper pullback.
2. Institutional Underworld: Where is the Trillion Dollar Fund Flowing?
Despite price fluctuations, institutional funds are still operating in the shadows:
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF: Assets under management surpass $75 billion, hitting a historical high, with institutional funds continuously increasing their positions;
Stablecoin Regulation Implemented: The US (Genius Act) signed into law, requiring stablecoins to have 100% reserve backing, with Tether and USDC's combined market value exceeding $247 billion, potentially becoming 'new blood' for the crypto market;
Miner Behavior Diversification: Bitcoin mining difficulty reached a historical high of 1.147 trillion, some miners choose to 'surrender' and sell Bitcoin due to rising electricity prices and shrinking profits, but leading mining farms continue to expand.
3. Macro Drivers: Fed Rate Cut Expectations Ignite the Market
Global capital is betting on a key variable - Fed Rate Cuts:
Data Signals: July's US CPI annual rate is expected to be 2.8%. If it is weaker than expected, the probability of a rate cut in September will increase significantly;
Transmission Logic: Rate cuts will push funds from low-risk assets like US Treasuries to high-yield targets, with Bitcoin as 'digital gold' potentially becoming the biggest beneficiary;
Geopolitical Linkages: Global trade frictions, risks of currency depreciation in emerging markets, further elevate Bitcoin's safe-haven demand.
4. Market Outlook: Is $120,000 a starting point or an endpoint?
Experts predict that Bitcoin may challenge historical highs this month, but two major risks need to be watched:
Policy Black Swan: If the US (Anti-CBDC Monitoring Act) passes, it may restrict central bank digital currencies, indirectly affecting Bitcoin's positioning;
Technical Pressure: If the $122,000 resistance level cannot be broken, it may maintain a fluctuation range of $115,000 to $120,000 in the short term.
Investment Advice:
Short-term Strategy: Focus on the $118,000 support level; if it stabilizes, consider light position long trades, with a stop loss set at $116,000;
Long-term Allocation: Institutional funds continue to flow in; Bitcoin and mainstream stablecoin assets can be gradually allocated to hedge against inflation risks.
Conclusion: Opportunities outweigh risks, but rational responses are needed.
This pullback is just like the calm before the storm. Institutional funds are flowing in the shadows, and with macro policy benefits combined with technical support, the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin remains unchanged. Investors need to stay calm, avoid chasing highs and cutting losses, to secure profits in the crypto wave!
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