#加密总市值创历史新高

Considering the current Federal Reserve interest rate path, market expectations, and the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency industry itself, the most likely window for the next round of a "comprehensive" cryptocurrency bull market to start is:

September 2025 – March 2026

The reasoning is broken down as follows:

1. Interest Rate Inflection Point

• The current federal funds rate is 4.25%–4.5%, at a 23-year high.

• After the disappointing non-farm data in July, CME FedWatch indicated that the probability of the first rate cut of 25–50 basis points in September briefly rose to over 70%. The mainstream expectation among traders is a total rate cut of 75–100 basis points within 2025, with rates likely falling below 3% before the first quarter of 2026.

• Historical experience: When the real interest rate (TIPS) falls below 1% and the federal funds rate enters the “below 3%” zone, global M2 expansion and a weaker dollar often lead to a major rally in crypto assets.

2. Internal Industry Cycle

• After Bitcoin's fourth halving in April 2024, prices typically explode within 6–18 months, corresponding to the period from Q4 2024 to Q1 2026.

• Spot ETFs have institutionalized Bitcoin, and long-term funds like Grayscale and BlackRock often increase their allocations once the rate cut expectations are clear, creating a “liquidity + compliance” dual drive.

3. Leading Indicators for Funding

• The total market value of stablecoins has surpassed $200 billion since early 2025. If the Federal Reserve shifts to easing, M2 expansion will further increase the issuance of stablecoins, providing “internal ammunition” for the crypto market.

• The peak net inflow for ETFs in a single day has reached a record of $370 million. Once the rate-cutting channel opens, “big money” such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds will truly increase their risk exposure.

Scenario Analysis

• Base Case Scenario (Probability 60%): Rate cuts begin in September, 2–3 times throughout the year, with rates dropping to 2.75%–3% in Q1 2026. Bitcoin surpasses $125,000–$140,000 in Q4 2025, with a target of $180,000–$200,000 in Q1 2026; mainstream altcoin season starts simultaneously.

• Delayed Scenario (Probability 25%): Sticky inflation delays the first rate cut until December. The bull market initiation point is pushed to December 2025 – April 2026, but the magnitude may not weaken.

• Black Swan Scenario (Probability 15%): A resurgence of inflation leads the Federal Reserve to restart rate hikes. The bull market will be postponed until the second half of 2026 or even 2027, but the long-term logic of halving + ETF remains unchanged.