I. Project Positioning & Technical Foundation
Core Value Proposition@WalletConnect
WCT is the governance and utility token of WalletConnect Protocol, solving fragmented connectivity between wallets and dApps in Web3. Since its 2018 launch, it has facilitated 275 million connections across 600+ wallets and 61,000+ dApps, achieving >90% penetration as a cross-chain interoperability standard.
Technical Highlights: E2E encryption, multi-chain compatibility (Ethereum/Solana/Bitcoin), low-latency relay.
Current Phase: Transitioning from free tool to "connectivity-as-service" with planned MAU-based monetization.
Tokenomics
Supply & Distribution: Fixed supply of 1 billion tokens; initial circulating supply 18.62% (186.2M). Breakdown: Airdrop (18.5%), Binance Launchpool (4%), Team/Early Backers (30%).
Key Utilities:
Governance voting (protocol upgrades, fee mechanisms)
Staking rewards (current 85% APY, but 50% inflation-dependent)
Future payment for connection fees (pending community activation).
II. Market Performance & Competitive Landscape
Price & Liquidity
As of May 2025: Price $0.89 (3.45x vs. private round price $0.2), circulating MC $53M, FDV $288M.
Significant exchange premium: 18.4% higher on Binance vs. OKX; Korea’s Upbit contributed 36% of volume on listing day.
Competitive Threats
Competitor Advantage Risk to WCT
MetaMask 98% chain coverage, zero inflation Reduces third-party connect demand
Trust Wallet $350M MC, Binance ecosystem support User/liquidity fragmentation
Phantom Solana monopoly Limited cross-chain but strong regional dominance
III. Core Challenges & Risks
Tokenomics Weaknesses
Inflation Trap: 50% of high APY (85%) relies on token emissions, fueling "farm-dump" cycles.
Utility Delay: Critical use cases (e.g., fee payments) remain inactive, limiting value capture.
Centralization: Top 50 addresses hold 71% of supply; market maker (GSR Markets) exacerbates volatility.
External Risks
Regulatory Uncertainty: Potential IP disputes (e.g., World Cup-themed designs) and tightening global crypto policies.
Weak Ecosystem: <5% DeFi staking rate, <3% NFT transaction share, TVL only $82M (1/20 of leading competitors).
IV. Growth Catalysts & Outlook
Short-Term Drivers
Staking Upgrade: Real yield share rising to 35%, easing inflation; weekly active addresses up 300%; 4.2M net outflow from exchanges (holding confidence ↑).
Airdrop Catalyst: 185M unclaimed airdrop tokens may convert to ecosystem incentives.
Long-Term Value Reconstruction
Monetization Breakthrough:
Connection fee model ($0.1-0.3/MAU) could generate $30M annual revenue, compressing FDV/revenue ratio to 10x.
Web2 partnerships (banks/logistics) for RWA expansion.
Tech Upgrades:
Multi-chain identity system (Testnet Q2 2025)
ZK-Rollups privacy module (w/ Polygon)
$5M GameFi incubation fund.
V. Verdict: The "Value Layer" Leap for Infrastructure Protocols
WCT’s paradox: 90% protocol adoption vs. <5% token value capture. Success hinges on:
Tokenomics Reformation: Shift from inflation to real yield (e.g., fee sharing);
Governance Decentralization: Boost voting participation, activate burn mechanisms;
Ecosystem Expansion: Penetrate high-frequency scenarios (NFTs/SocialFi), replicating Chainlink’s "essential service" playbook.#WalletConnect
Market Signal Watch: If protocol fees exceed $2M/month by Q3 2025 and staking real yield turns positive, WCT could revalue toward $1(+180%). Current pricing reflects bearish fear but masks mispricing opportunities — monitor Q3 airdrop unlocks for stage-specific sell pressure.$WCT
