The weekend market is in a big wave; today we can see Bitcoin is close to the new high of 12.2. If it breaks 12.3, it will trigger a larger market movement. ETH has also broken the previous high of 4300; this wave of Ethereum can be said to have driven Bitcoin.
Moreover, the overall altcoin market is experiencing a broad rise as the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market has reached a new high of $4 trillion. So, do not believe in any fake masters (who claim to have predicted a coin's surge; in this market, simply choosing from the top 200 coins has a high probability of rising as long as you avoid stablecoins and some very poor coins, with a probability of up to 80%).
In fact, at the end of July, Powell announced no rate cut (the fifth consecutive hold since December 2024), leading to a significant drop in both the US stock market and cryptocurrency market, and on August 1, Trump announced tariffs, causing the entire world economy to fall.
However, there was an immediate reversal, as the non-farm employment number announced on August 1 was only 73,000, significantly lower than expected. This means Powell was contradicted because he claimed no rate cut was necessary due to good economic data, but employment has sharply decreased, which indicates a poor environment, and thus a rate cut should be warranted!
Rate Cut Expectations
Subsequently, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman stated that the July employment data was weak, especially with a significant drop in new jobs, further supporting her judgment for three rate cuts this year. She pointed out that inflationary pressures primarily stem from temporary tariff increases rather than persistent structural inflation.
Differing Positions Among Officials
Raphael Bostic, the President of the Atlanta Fed, acknowledged that the labor market is weakening but remains cautious, only predicting one rate cut this year. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly all stated that they would support faster rate cuts if unemployment rises.
Market consensus favors a rate cut in September
Many financial institutions and markets expect the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts as early as the September meeting. J.P. Morgan has advanced its first rate cut expectation to September and predicts three additional 25 basis point adjustments afterward. CME FedWatch tool indicates that the market probability for a September rate cut is close to 90%.
Therefore, with this, a rate cut is expected in September, and the financial market's expectations have revived, leading to a rebound in US stocks after a two-day drop, and similarly for the cryptocurrency market. This is one positive factor, and another is the 401K plan recently signed by Trump.
Trump signed an executive order on August 7, 2025, requiring the U.S. Department of Labor, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Treasury Department to reformulate rules so that 401(k) plans can include alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies, private equity, and real estate, with a scale of approximately $12.5 trillion.
This order initiates the process, but it does not mean that cryptocurrencies can immediately enter the 401(k) investment menu. Plan providers (such as Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab, etc.) still need to develop compliant products, and employers must also modify plan documents—this entire process may take months or even years to truly become widespread.
Of course, many experts and institutions estimate how much of this $12 trillion fund could flow into the cryptocurrency market. Currently, there are three perspectives in the estimation model (approximately 0.1% - 3% of the overall volume), which could mean about $10 billion to $240 billion could flow into the cryptocurrency market annually. This is undoubtedly a long-term positive.
Core Data of the Cryptocurrency Circle
The practical share of Bitcoin has finally dropped below 60%, while Ethereum has risen to 12.8%. Many friends ask if ETH is so high, can it still rise? From historical data, it is actually not that high; in 2017's bull market, ETH reached 30% share, and in 2021's bull market, it reached 21%. So currently, ETH is just catching up, and there should be a larger increase in the future.
ETF Data
Bitcoin dropped for three days from August 1 to August 3, but has been on the rise since then. Although the volume may not have picked up yet, today's data hasn't been released, and based on today's price performance, it is certainly going to rise significantly.
Then there are the Ethereum ETF data, which showed outflows of 150 million on August 1 and 460 million on August 2, but subsequently entered a growth state with significant inflows, including 460 million on August 8.
Looking again at Ethereum's strategic reserves, it has now reached 2.73 million coins, with the current purchase/issuance volume exceeding four times. The data from the July 28 program showed only 1.1 times, indicating that companies like Bitmine and Sharplink are frantically acquiring (at any cost!).
Currently, Bitmine holds 620,000 coins, and Sharplink holds 430,000 coins, having purchased tens of thousands more than two weeks ago. The ETH version of MicroStrategy is still in ongoing competition; let's see who can come out on top in the end.
Subsequent Market Analysis
Therefore, whether it's ETH driving Bitcoin or Bitcoin and ETH rising together, it marks the end of a four-year cycle in the cryptocurrency market!
This wave of Bitcoin has risen from 1.5 to 120,000, and it may reach 150,000 or even 180,000 in the future, which is nearly a tenfold increase. ETH is also starting to catch up; whether ETH reaches 6,000 or 10,000, this four-year journey may meet its final moment. Currently, the consensus in the cryptocurrency circle seems to be aligned.
Of course, some people say that the future may see a long bull market, and I do not deny this because the overall macro situation is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, and two significant good news have been announced previously. If there are three rate cuts, it may last even longer since the financial market operates on expectations. Additionally, the continuous good news from the 401K plan may mean that it won't drop as sharply as before; it might drop around 30% like in 2024, which is also very possible.
So, my recent thought is that if you are a long-term investor, and can see a 10-20 year or even 30 year timeframe, there is no need to sell Bitcoin. Focus on making money outside the market, and use extra funds to invest in Bitcoin regularly. Read more articles from the 'Hoarding Bitcoin' series. Jiu Shen and CZ have achieved results; institutions like MicroStrategy have also seen results. If you don’t learn from these good examples, how else can you learn?
If you are a short-term investor, I think you could sell during this wave to make a swing trade. If you're lucky, you might get it right this time, but you have a long life ahead; how can you ensure you will get it right continuously?
Finally, regarding whether ETH can hold long-term, I think the issue is not significant because the second largest cryptocurrency remains unchallenged. It has operated stably for 10 years without downtime, and in terms of stability, the financial system greatly needs such reliability.